China is talking to Taiwan’s next leader, just not directly

AFTER 11 days in China, during which time he was granted an audience with Xi Jinping, its supreme leader, Ma Ying-jeou came back to Taiwan this month with a message. The island’s former president, posting on Facebook, wrote that Mr Xi had “extended an olive branch to us”. Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”.

Much has changed since Mr Ma left office in 2016, having pursued closer relations with China. His successor, Tsai Ing-wen, has asserted Taiwan’s status as a sovereign, democratic country. Mr Lai has called himself a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence”. China froze high-level contacts with Taiwan years ago. During Mr Lai’s successful campaign for president, Chinese officials denounced his party as separatists and called the election a choice between “war and peace”.

So it is no surprise that Mr Xi’s supposed olive branch comes with conditions. Mr Ma counselled Mr Lai to confirm that China and Taiwan are not two countries and to promise that he would not pursue independence. Little is expected to come of all that. China has ignored Mr Lai’s offers to talk, calling them insincere.

The question, then, is why did Mr Xi even meet Mr Ma, a diminished figure whose views are outside the mainstream in Taiwan? Mr Ma, for example, believes that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a common national identity. But more than 60% of those on the island say they are Taiwanese, not Chinese. During the election campaign Mr Ma was sidelined by his own Kuomintang (KMT) party after saying that Taiwan had to trust Mr Xi. Less than 10% of Taiwanese believe China is a trustworthy country.

China, though, thinks there is still a benefit to embracing people like Mr Ma. Officials in Beijing stress the importance of supporting Taiwan’s “patriotic unification forces”. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) receives a steady stream of delegations made up of Taiwanese religious leaders, businessmen and students. Andrew Hsia, the KMT’s vice-chairman, has visited China at least seven times since 2022. Chinese leaders seem to believe that by dividing the island now they may one day win it over. Even though Mr Lai was victorious, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in parliament and most Taiwanese back more cross-strait talking.

There is also a domestic component to China’s strategy. “Beijing is telling its own people that it has not lost control over the Taiwan issue and that there is still time to achieve unification,” says Amanda Hsiao of Crisis Group, a think-tank. The Ma-Xi meeting, front-page news in China, aimed to make that point. China’s leaders may want to give themselves more “political space” on Taiwan, says Ms Hsiao, as they deal with economic challenges and await the outcome of America’s election.

But that does not mean China is sitting back. As it embraces so-called patriots, it is also exerting pressure on Taiwan. Chinese warplanes have continued to cross the Taiwan Strait’s median line (the de facto maritime border) on a regular basis. And on February 1st China’s Civil Aviation Administration changed a flight path to allow Chinese civilian planes to fly closer to the median line, too. Taiwan responded by accusing China of trying to “unilaterally alter the status quo”. In 2015 the Chinese authorities planned a similar move, only to compromise after Mr Ma’s administration complained. Now the TAO is saying there is “no such thing” as the median line because Taiwan is part of China.

The TAO said something similar after a recent incident around Kinmen, an archipelago that is controlled by Taiwan but lies only 3km from China. On February 14th two Chinese fishermen drowned while being chased by Taiwan’s coastguard. Taiwan said they were in “prohibited waters”; the TAO said there is “no such thing”. Soon after, China’s coastguard boarded and inspected a Taiwanese tourist ship, an unprecedented move. It also began carrying out patrols close to Kinmen, encircling the island and entering waters that Taiwan deems restricted.

In the air and on the sea, China’s manoeuvring falls well short of war. But its actions amount to claims of sovereignty in the affected areas, says Lee Jyun-yi of the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a Taiwanese think-tank. The message from China seems clear: a president who seeks more sovereignty for Taiwan will see it diminish; but think and act like Mr Ma, and we can talk. ■

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