China’s population facing ‘largest absolute population loss’, UN says
China “will likely experience the largest absolute population loss [of 204 million] between 2024 and 2054,” the report said, followed by Japan and Russia, whose potential losses stand at 21 million and 10 million, respectively.
Longer-range population projections, though, are more uncertain, the report added.
Only 9.02 million births were reported in China in 2023, representing the lowest level since records began in 1949.
The global fertility rate stands at 2.25 live births per woman, while a replacement level of 2.1 live is required to maintain a stable population size.
China, along with nearly one fifth of all countries and areas, is experiencing what is referred to as “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime, said the UN.
China’s total fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022, according to an estimate by the China Population and Development Research Centre, while the total fertility rate in Shanghai, one of China’s wealthiest cities, dipped to 0.6 in 2023, according to the municipality.
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Demographers said China’s total fertility rate could have dropped below one in 2023, although China has not provided an official total fertility rate for last year.
The UN report estimated that Hong Kong and South Korea had the lowest levels of fertility in 2024, with an average below 0.75 births per woman.
It is very likely that the world’s population would peak within the century, earlier than expected, presumably in the mid-2080s with a population around 8.2 billion, the UN added.
“The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago,” the UN report said.
“The earlier occurrence of a peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower than-expected levels of fertility in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China.”