Javier Milei, an Argentine libertarian, is rising in the polls
Drama is never far away from Argentinian politics. This year looks set to be particularly exciting. In October Argentines will go to the polls to elect a new government. For months the leading candidate to oppose the current Peronist government looked to be Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the technocratic mayor of Buenos Aires, the capital. However with annual inflation at a 31-year-high of 104%, the widely used black-market peso depreciating in value and a severe drought affecting vast swathes of the countryside, it is clear that Argentines are looking for a radical shift.
Within the coalition of the centre-right opposition, known as Together for Change, Patricia Bullrich, a hawkish former security minister, is now a potential challenger to Mr Larreta for the candidacy. But it is Javier Milei, a libertarian economist and congressman, who seems to be benefiting the most from the economic chaos. Argentine polls are notoriously unreliable. However Mr Milei, a 52-year-old outsider, is currently leading in some polls as the most popular individual politician, ahead of the primaries in August to determine which candidates run. (The combined potential vote share of Mr Larreta and Ms Bullrich would, however, still beat him.) His support is highest with men under the age of 30.
Mr Milei cuts a striking figure, even by Argentine standards. A bachelor, he lives alone with five mastiffs, most of which are named after famous economists. He raffles his congressman’s salary to the public on YouTube. A Catholic, he says he now may convert to Judaism. He has said that the two people closest to him are his sister, now his campaign manager, and a rabbi.
It is his anti-establishment rhetoric that has appeared to strike a chord among frustrated voters. His coalition for the presidency, Freedom Advances, revolves around him. “Milei is a celebrity,” says Martín Tetaz, a centre-right member of the lower house. Mr Milei is a regular on talk-shows and rants on social media against the “political caste”. “He connects with an audience that doesn’t feel like debating arguments,” says Mr Tetaz.
His policies are radical. Mr Milei voted against the deal the government struck with the IMF last year, which refinanced a $44bn loan, originally taken out in 2018. This new deal says Argentina should cut its fiscal deficit to 1.9% of GDP, from 2.3% in 2022, by the end of this year. In an interview with The Economist Mr Milei describes the strings attached to the deal as “incredibly lax”. “What I have in mind is way tougher than that,” he adds. He says he will to cut through public spending with a “chainsaw” and reduce government expenditures by 10% of GDP in his first year in office. He would “cut off his arm” before raising taxes. He wants to slash red tape and drop the peso and shift the economy to the mighty US dollar, like Ecuador.
Budget cuts have rarely won votes in Argentina. Most polls show dollarisation is not popular—according to one, less than a third of Argentines polled would be keen on the idea. Mr Milei’s more extreme proposals, such as banning abortion, introducing lax gun laws or legalising a market for human organs, disturb many voters. But in a country where left-wing populism has been the norm for decades, his popularity is remarkable. “People like me because I am the only one that says things straight,” he says. “Some call me crazy, but the crazy guy is ultimately right about things. Argentina will be liberal again.” ■