Ecuador chooses a leader amid murder, blackouts and stagnation

Running Ecuador seems an unenviable job. In recent years it has become the most violent state in mainland Latin America. Droughts have caused blackouts. Economic growth is anaemic. Even so, 16 presidential candidates are vying for Ecuadorians’ vote when they go to the polls on February 9th. (They will also select all 151 members of their legislature.)

Only two have any chance of winning. One is the current president, Daniel Noboa, the 37-year-old scion of a banana empire. He has been in power since he won a snap election in October 2023. His main challenger is Luisa González, a 47-year-old leftist lawyer who also ran in 2023. If neither candidate wins a majority—or more than 40% of votes with a ten-point lead—a run-off will be held in April.

Polls indicate that Mr Noboa will win, perhaps even in the first round. Yet surprises could still happen: at least a quarter of voters are undecided and many do not even know when the election is. At stake is the future of a country which is worryingly close to falling into the grip of drug gangs, and which has become a major source of migrants to the United States.

In his short time in office, Mr Noboa has faced more daunting challenges than most leaders do in a full term. Weeks after he assumed power, gangs orchestrated a show of force, killing prison guards, setting fire to buses and taking television presenters hostage live on air. Mr Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict”, sending the army onto the streets and into prisons. Thousands of people were arrested.

Results looked promising at first: murders per 100,000 people fell from around 46 in 2023 to around 39 last year. Yet killings started ticking up again in the middle of 2024, and in January they reached their highest monthly level on record.

The cost of the use of force

The abuse of state power is becoming more common, and more gruesome. In December four children aged 11 to 15 went missing on their way home from a football game. The army initially denied involvement, but surveillance footage obtained and broadcast by local TV stations showed soldiers forcing two of the children into a truck. The children’s burned bodies were later found near an air-force base. Sixteen soldiers are being investigated. “This government lacks respect for the people, the security forces do whatever they want,” says Maria (not her real name), at a rally in Quito, the capital.

An environmental crisis has compounded problems. Severe drought last year curbed the output of Ecuador’s hydroelectric dams, leading to blackouts that lasted up to 14 hours. The government has had some economic success. Mr Noboa has raised VAT from 12% to 15% and reduced costly fuel subsidies while avoiding the usual protests that accompany such reforms. He also signed a deal with the IMF that will give the country access to $4bn in loans over four years. On February 4th the government agreed the terms of a free-trade deal with Canada.

Many of Mr Noboa’s rivals have suffered. In 2023 one of his main challengers was Jan Topić, a tough-on-crime businessman and former foreign legionnaire. In November an electoral court disqualified Mr Topić from running in this election on the grounds that he is a shareholder in companies with government contracts. The same electoral court has disqualified several major political groups from fielding legislative candidates, allegedly for administrative and procedural violations. Teneo, a consultancy in London, warns of “authoritarian creep”.

Mr Noboa has surrounded himself with relatives and buddies. A lawyer who has worked for a company owned by his wife is a minister. Several other cabinet roles are held by friends. His mother is a leading candidate for the legislature. Though nepotism is not unusual in Latin America, Teneo’s Nicholas Watson warns that it could eventually cause “image problems”.

For now though, his image is perhaps Mr Noboa’s greatest strength. He and his wife, a fitness influencer, are social-media virtuosos. His TikTok and Instagram accounts, which boast millions of followers, are littered with posts of him wearing dark sunglasses and bulletproof vests, working out in sleeveless tops and dancing with voters. “He sells his and his wife’s lifestyle, they are aspirational figures,” says Sebastián Hurtado, a political analyst in Quito.

If re-elected Mr Noboa will have powerful allies. He was one of just a few foreign leaders invited to Donald Trump’s inauguration. He probably has his links to Robert F. Kennedy junior, Mr Trump’s nominee for US secretary of health, to thank for that. Mr Kennedy is a friend of Mr Noboa’s father, and has said that Mr Noboa was “raised in my house”. He is reportedly the godfather of Mr Noboa’s youngest brother.

Depending on Donald

Yet if Ecuador does not solve its security issues, the relationship with Mr Trump could sour. As violence has soared, so has migration. Between 2012 and 2018 an average of 3,600 Ecuadorians were detained annually at the southern border of the United States. In 2024 some 122,000 were caught making the crossing. Ecuador also signed a free-trade agreement with China in 2023. Chinese-made cars dominate Quito’s streets. All this could rile Mr Trump.

For now Mr Noboa has the support of the markets, a connection to the hemisphere’s most powerful president and tolerance from Ecuadorians who have stomached difficult reforms. Four more years in power could help him consolidate his gains—or “create time for the government to discredit itself”, warns Mr Hurtado. ■

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