Thailand’s democracy takes two steps back

First, on Aug. 8, the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, the country’s most popular political party and the winner of last year’s parliamentary election. The court also banned the party’s top 11 officials from politics for 10 years, including its charismatic young leader, Pita Limjaroenrat. That ruling was widely expected — the same maneuvering felled the party’s predecessor, the Future Forward Party, four years ago.

Then on Wednesday, the court ordered the immediate dismissal of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for ethics violations after less than one year in the job. Mr. Srettha hails from the Pheu Thai Party, the second-largest party, which campaigned as a pro-democracy ally of Move Forward. Mr. Srettha only got the job when Mr. Pita and Move Forward were blocked from forming the government by a coalition of conservative business tycoons and pro-military and royalist parties that saw Move Forward’s reform agenda as too radical.

The two rulings show the country’s entrenched old guard reasserting its control. Instead of military coups, the anti-reform, anti-democracy camp now practices “lawfare,” subverting the popular will through the use — or rather, abuse — of the legal system. Lawfare has become a common weapon used by autocratic governments that want a veneer of legal legitimacy to cover what is still just old-school repression.

Move Forward’s transgression was its proposal to open debate on the role of the monarchy in Thailand, where the king serves as the constitutional head of state, campaigning to reform a draconian law against defaming the monarchy, section 112 of the criminal code known as lèse-majesté that has been abused to silence dissent. It is considered the strictest such law in the world, with a penalty up to 15 years in prison. At least 272 people have been charged with lèse-majesté since 2020.

The court’s ruling effectively disenfranchises more than 14 million Thai voters who gave the Move Forward Party a stunning victory in the 2023 parliamentary elections and a plurality of 151 seats in the parliament.

Mr. Srettha’s dismissal stems from his appointment of an ethically tainted lawyer to a senior cabinet office job, though he resigned after less than a month. But the real reason, many analysts believe, is that the conservative old guard wanted to send a warning to Mr. Srettha’s patron, the billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who is still believed to control the levers of his Pheu Thai party behind the scenes.

The practical effect of these rulings might be limited. The day after Move Forward was dissolved, all 143 of its remaining members of parliament announced the formation of a new party, called the People’s Party, with a new leader, 37-year-old Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut. He said the new party will continue to push reform. But the legal attacks continue; some 44 Move Forward politicians are being investigated for ethics violations by the country’s anti-corruption agency.

Also, on Friday, Pheu Thai and its coalition partners in parliament overwhelmingly selected Mr. Thaksin’s 37-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as the new prime minister despite her thin résumé. Though both her father and her aunt served as prime minister and were overthrown in military coups, and it is unclear how long Ms. Paetongtarn will last in the job.

Thailand poses a difficult dilemma for the United States. The country remains a critical American ally in Southeast Asia, and the U.S. and Thai militaries hold annual joint exercises. The United States is also reportedly looking to sell sophisticated F-16 Block 70 jets to the Thai air force.

The State Department said the United States was “deeply concerned” by the dissolution of Move Forward. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, said Congress would “continue to evaluate” how developments would impact the bilateral relationship. The question is: What will the United States’ and Thailand’s democratic allies do? If history is any guide, the answer, sadly, is not much.

Thai officials largely brushed off the criticism over Move Forward’s dissolution, saying the country wouldn’t be swayed by “foreign interference.” They know that in the geopolitical rivalry between America and China, Thailand is too important an ally to seriously sanction. As long as the United States pays only lip service to promoting democracy as a guiding principle, they are probably right.