Beyond France, the European elections will deliver more of the same

Elections across Europe in recent years have often been a case of gauging the dwindling ability of centrist political forces to contain the rise of parties on the hard right. The continent-wide European Parliament elections held between June 6th and 9th marked another twist: a strong rise of nationalist support in France and Germany, even as their allies in the rest of the bloc made few inroads. The political centre has been dented, but it still holds.

As the results trickled out on June 9th, the focus was on France, thanks to Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call national parliamentary elections after the National Rally (RN) of his arch-rival Marine Le Pen routed Mr Macron’s liberals. The RN had already topped the EU vote in 2014 and 2019; its margin this time was so wide that its 30 MEPs will be the biggest delegation to the 720-seat parliament in Brussels.

But the result in Germany was also remarkable. The nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party which unlike the RN has done little to moderate its xenophobic views to appeal to mainstream voters, took 16%, beating all three parties in the ruling coalition. The Social Democrats of Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, fell to their worst score in a national election in over a century of existence. The centre-right Christian Democrats had a good night, relatively speaking, topping the poll easily with 30%—making them favourites ahead of federal elections next year.

There were other pockets of hard-right support beyond France and Germany. In Austria the Freedom Party, which belongs to the same hard-right Identity and Democracy parliamentary group as the RN and (until it was kicked out recently) the AfD, also came top. In Belgium the more notable result was in national elections also on June 9th, won by a Flemish nationalist party, the New Flemish Alliance—a far more moderate force than the nationalist Vlaams Belang that had been favoured in the opinion polls. The leader of the Alliance, Bart De Wever, is the most likely future prime minister. That would mean another EU national leader drawn from a party in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc, which takes in Eurosceptic and hard-right parties in the Brussels parliament.

But just as notable were places where nationalist stalwarts failed to make gains. Geert Wilders, the firebrand who won the most votes in Dutch elections in November, lost to centre-left adversaries this time. The Sweden Democrats, a post-fascist party that sits in the ECR, had a rare bad night, falling from second to fourth position. In Spain and Portugal, the hard right also fared less well than in recent national contests. In Poland, the centrist prime minister, Donald Tusk, edged out the Eurosceptic Law and Justice party.

Incumbents on the hard right had mixed results. The ECR-affiliated party of Giorgia Meloni came top in Italy—but with the centre-left close behind. Slovakia’s pro-Russia prime minister, Robert Fico, who recently survived an assassination bid, saw his party fall behind progressive adversaries. And a new opposition force has emerged in Hungary. The Fidesz party of prime minister Viktor Orban came first, but an ally-turned-rival, Peter Magyar, won nearly 30% of the vote.

Despite the big impact the European elections will have on member states’ domestic politics, the actual point of the five-yearly EU elections is to help set the political direction of the bloc’s institutions in Brussels. Though European parliamentarians have few powers compared with national counterparts, their support is essential to enacting key EU-level policies such as cutting carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, or continued assistance to Ukraine.

Early political haggling suggests those policies will remain broadly in place. That is because the election’s biggest winner was the centre-right European People’s Party, scoring 26% of the vote under the aegis of Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent president of the European Commission.

EU leaders meeting on June 17th and 27th are widely expected to nominate her for a second five-year term to run the bloc’s powerful executive arm. But to secure ratification by the European Parliament, Mrs von der Leyen needs a majority of the incoming MEPs. The coalition she used to secure her first mandate, consisting of Socialists, Liberals and her own EPP, will have just over 400 seats, well above the 361 needed. But because the ballot is secret and parliamentary groups are fractious, some politicking will be required to assemble a viable alliance backing her.

Originally, Mrs von der Leyen was expected to broaden her coalition to get the requisite vote. A thorny question was whether she might need to entice Ms Meloni’s party to join the centrist coalition. That may not be necessary. Ironically the easiest votes for Mrs von der Leyen to scoop up may be from the Greens, who emerged as the night’s big losers. Any guarantee, even partial, that the commission will keep pushing for net zero by 2050 might be enough to win their votes.

Beyond Mrs von der Leyen, it appears a full slate of other top EU jobs could be agreed quickly. António Costa, a former socialist prime minister of Portugal, seems favourite to become president of the European Council, who chairs meetings of EU leaders. Kaja Kallas, the hawkish Estonian prime minister, is in pole position to become the bloc’s top diplomat as “high representative” for foreign affairs. If that all pans out, it would prove a case of remarkable political continuity, given fears not long ago that the Eurosceptic hard right would be in a position to wreak havoc. ■

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