Could Trump’s return mark the start of a new race with China over drones for the military?

The second Donald Trump administration is expected to spur increased competition with China to develop and produce dual-use drones, which have proved a low-cost but effective weapon on the modern battlefield.

Drones could be a central plank of the president-elect’s “America first” agenda, but some observers have said that US commercial drones would be too expensive to compete with those made in China.

Others have said further trade restrictions would have a limited impact on China’s dominance in the industry despite Trump’s promise to jack up tariffs on Chinese goods.

The use of drones designed to capture wide-view photos and footage with a first-person view has become widespread among rescue services and mappers as well as ordinary members of the public. However, they also have a military use and have featured extensively on battlefields in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The US military sees drones as playing a key role in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait and has warned it is planning to create an “unmanned hellscape” using thousands of the devices if mainland Chinese forces attack the island.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. The United States, in common with most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but opposes any attempt to take it by force and is legally bound to supply the island with weapons to defend itself.

Although the US has traditionally had an edge over China in the production of military drones, it is lagging behind in building a robust, self-sufficient supply chain for dual-use drones – something that could hamper its ability to adapt the technology to meet its needs in the event of conflict.

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