BERLIN — Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German policy has been dictated by one guiding principle: Avoid a direct confrontation with Russia at all costs.
But after a summit of European leaders in Paris on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron threw German-style caution to the wind.
"We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war," Macron told reporters. “Everything is possible,” he said, including sending Western troops to Ukraine.
Those comments were a stark contrast to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who shortly before departing for the summit in Paris made the opposite argument, warning of the dangers of Russia's reaction should his government send German-made Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine.
“We cannot be linked at any point or place to the targets that this system can reach,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin. “This clarity is also necessary. I'm surprised that some people aren't even moved by it, that they don't even think about whether what we're doing could lead to a kind of involvement in war."
Germany isn't alone in its reluctance be overly provocative toward Moscow. From the beginning of the war, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has also attempted to walk a fine line, giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself without providing so much that it draws the U.S. into a war with Russia.
On Tuesday, leaders of several NATO nations distanced themselves from Macron's comments, insisting they have no plans to send troops to Ukraine.
But German fears of conflict with Russia are particularly ingrained. That is in a great part a consequence of history. The Russian threat has long loomed in the German imagination. There’s also an element of historical guilt.
Earlier in the war, Scholz delayed a decision on sending German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, partly because of a strong pacifist streak in the country.
The French have fewer such reservations, which is likely why Macron feels more comfortable speaking of the possibility Western boots on the ground — even if such a move seems far-fetched.
On Tuesday, Scholz shot down any consideration of Western countries sending troops to help defend Ukraine. “There will be no ground troops from European countries or NATO,” he tweeted.
Franco-German clash
The friction between Scholz and Macron over military aid for Ukraine is turning into something of an open feud.
German officials complain that, while Macron is willing to talk tough on Ukraine, he has not followed up with nearly enough action compared to what Berlin is doing.
Germany's Kiel Institute, which compiles national contributions to Ukraine’s war effort, ranks France as a clear laggard with €640 million in military aid compared to Germany, which has provided or promised €17.7 billion.
It’s why Scholz has been using every chance he gets to press EU countries — and particularly France — to send more arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
French officials counter that they provide weapons that really matter — and do so with less hesitation than the Germans.
Case in point, they say, is Scholz’s reluctance to send Taurus missiles. France committed to send its SCALP cruise missiles in July, following a British move to send its Storm Shadows in May. Those missiles are comparable to the Taurus, although the German cruise missile is understood to offer a longer range and has a warhead that makes it useful against targets like the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian leaders have been pleading for those missiles, particularly as their military faces a growing shortage of ammunition and Republicans in the U.S. Congress block a $60 billion military aid package to the country. Earlier this month, Ukrainian troops were forced to pull back from the city of Avdiivka in part due to a lack of artillery shells, giving Moscow its greatest battlefield success in several months.
The Ukrainians want missiles like the Taurus to hit Russian positions and supply lines deep behind the frontline.
But German officials say Taurus deliveries would require the direct involvement of German troops on the ground to program the missiles.
However, Gustav C. Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, has said that Ukrainians could be trained to use the Taurus without the need to send German soldiers to Ukraine.
After the summit in Paris on Monday, Macron appeared to go after Scholz for Germany’s historical dithering when it comes to sending weapons to Ukraine.
“Many of the people who say ‘never, never’ today were the same people who said ‘never, never tanks, never, never planes, never, never long-range missiles, never, never this’ two years ago,” Macron said. In a clear reference to Germany’s widely-ridiculed offer, just before the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to send 5,000 helmets, Macron added: “I remind you that two years ago, many around this table said: ‘We will offer sleeping bags and helmets.'”
But with regard to the Taurus missiles, Scholz has been adamant that a climbdown would be difficult. One possible opening would be if the U.S. sends more if its ATACMS ballistic missiles to Kyiv, as Berlin has tended to move one pace behind Washington when it comes to arming Ukraine.
Berlin also refused to budge on sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine until it got the word that the U.S. would send its M1 Abrams tanks.