The United States is not in a recession, but there’s a real chance it could be soon. The herculean economy of 2023 is past, and the situation now is fragile. The economy is cooling. Growth is slowing. Consumers are no longer splurging; they’re value-hunting. Business leaders have turned cautious, and in most industries hiring is tepid — or nonexistent.
The U.S. economy looks fragile. There’s an easy way to fix that.
Friday’s jobs report underscored the thin-ice conditions. Hiring was weaker than expected in August, and job growth for June and July was revised way down. Unemployment has been steadily climbing since the start of the year, and today 1 million more Americans are unemployed than there were last summer. One of the country’s best recession indicators — the Sahm Rule — is flashing a warning sign. And if layoffs increase, more people and businesses might cut back on spending, spurring more job cuts and a downturn.
There’s an easy way for the Federal Reserve to stop this deterioration and prevent a recession: Cut interest rates decisively.
The Fed has its benchmark interest rate sitting at a two-decade high of nearly 5.5 percent. This has resulted from purposeful increases made over the past two years to fight inflation. And they worked; all the latest data indicate that inflation has come way down. Now the Fed must turn its focus to the labor market and take quick action to stave off a spike in layoffs. Over and over again, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has told the world that the Fed would do whatever it took to get inflation down. Now his message needs to be that the Fed will do what’s necessary to avoid more job losses.
Powell has signaled the Fed will cut interest rates on Sept. 18. The question is, by how much? On Wall Street, traders see coin-toss odds as to whether there will be a modest quarter-point reduction to 5.25 percent or a more substantial cut to about 5 percent.
I’ve covered the Fed for years, and I think it is very likely that Powell will choose the modest option of a 25-basis-point cut. He and other Fed leaders will say the economy still looks solid, and they don’t want to scare anyone. They will rationalize that they can take a first small step and follow it with more cuts later this year if the labor market worsens. Already, Powell’s top deputies are laying out this case. New York Fed President John Williams argued Friday that interest rates should move down “over time depending on the evolution of the data.” Fed Gov. Christopher J. Waller put it this way on Friday: “If subsequent data show a significant deterioration in the labor market, the [Fed] can act quickly and forcefully to adjust monetary policy.”
This is a mistake. The biggest risk lies in not doing enough. By making a larger cut this month, the Fed could signal that it is taking the warning signs seriously and wants to prevent the worst-case scenario. It would quickly restore Americans’ confidence in the economy. What’s missing from Fed leaders’ speeches is any mention of who gets hurt if they get this calculation wrong.
The United States is again experiencing a two-track economy: Lower-income people are struggling to get by, and Americans are carrying record-high credit card debt. Stores such as Dollar General report that their weakest weeks are at the end of the month as people run out of money. Dollar General chief executive Todd Vasos said last week: “The majority of [our consumers] state that they feel worse off financially than they were six months ago as higher prices, softer employment levels and increased borrowing costs have negatively impacted low-income consumer sentiment.” Casey’s General Store, a Midwest-based chain, has noted that consumers earning less than about $50,000 are buying more fountain sodas instead of bottles and cans to save money.
In the past year, the biggest unemployment spikes have been among Black and Asian workers and workers without high school degrees. Manufacturing has typically provided “good jobs” for Americans without college degrees, but the sector lost jobs in August and saw one of the biggest downward revisions of any industry last year and this year.
Fed leaders like to point out that the main reason unemployment has increased is that more people are looking for jobs, and it’s taking a while for them to get hired. This is true. But it’s important to think about what it actually means for Americans who have little to no savings and need paychecks now. And the long-term effects on young Americans who are struggling to get their first jobs and will face years of lower earnings if they can’t get in the door soon.
Powell doesn’t like to consider politics, but it’s also worth pointing out that the Fed’s next big decision day, after this month, will Nov. 7 — two days after Election Day. This is yet another reason to front-load economic relief in September — instead of needing to take drastic action at a heated political moment.
A significant rate cut in September would demonstrate the Fed’s resolve to keep the economy on solid ground.