Israeli forces probe Lebanon border as ground invasion looms

The U.S. official, citing discussions between Israel and the Biden administration over the weekend, said Israel had apparently scaled back plans for a major ground invasion and would now launch a more limited campaign — focused on destroying Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons caches, then pulling back. On Monday, Israeli forces appeared to start laying the groundwork for the operation to come, carrying out small cross-border raids, according to the Israeli familiar with the matter.

Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli major general and national security adviser, said such probing missions are seen as a necessary first step before more troops move in. “You have to touch the ground and see, to understand what’s there,” he said. “It’s called active reconnaissance.”

After 11 months of trading fire with Hezbollah, which began attacking Israel on Oct. 8 in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli military has dealt the group stunning blows in recent weeks — blowing up its electronic devices, raining down airstrikes on fighters and munitions depots and killing Hasan Nasrallah, its longtime leader, and other top officials in an attack on their underground bunker in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

All the while, the Israeli military has moved troops and equipment to staging areas on the northern front to prepare for an invasion, hoping to permanently alter the balance of power along the Lebanese border. On Monday night it designated three towns in north Israel as closed military zones.

“The next phase in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday. Israel was committed to allowing tens of thousands of residents displaced from the north by Hezbollah fire to return to their homes, he added.

For all Hezbollah’s setbacks, its deputy leader vowed Monday that the group was prepared for a protracted fight. In the first address from a senior figure since Nasrallah’s assassination, Naim Qassem, now the group’s highest-ranking official, said “we know that the battle might be long … and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land.”

Backed by Iran, Hezbollah had built its weapons arsenal and strategic reach over decades, fighting Israel from the home front while shaping conflicts from Syria to Yemen. But in the space of two weeks, Israel has shattered the group’s image as a formidable regional power.

The optics of Qassem’s address, delivered from an undisclosed location, reflected the crisis of the moment. In place of the usual live audience and backdrop of photographs and slogans, he spoke with a simple wooden closet behind him.

Israel’s escalating military offensive has set off a sprawling humanitarian disaster in Lebanon, a country already beset by financial woes and political dysfunction. At least 1,168 people have been killed since Sept. 17, according to the Lebanese health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Hundreds of thousands are displaced.

In northern Israel, nearly 70,000 people remain displaced and, earlier this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made returning them to their homes an official goal of the war. “We will use everything necessary … from the air, from the sea and from the land,” Gallant told troops on Monday.

Miri Eisin, a former senior intelligence officer in the Israeli military who has been briefed on security deliberations, said that much of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, stationed along the border with Israel, has retreated underground.

“No matter how many times we attack, you cannot destroy that from the air,” she said. “To be able to get to that subterranean arena … you have to go in.”

Hezbollah would prefer to fight Israel on land, she said, “where they feel safe, they have booby traps” and will try to “kill as many Israeli soldiers as they can.”

Eisin described a potential ground incursion as a “necessary action,” aimed at taking out tunnels, vehicles and stores of short-range rockets and other weapons — making it impossible for the group to carry out an Oct. 7 style ground attack on communities in northern Israel.

But it was unclear how such a narrowly defined operation would be able to ensure long-term security for Israel along the border. Similar Israeli campaigns in southern and central Gaza, described as limited at the outset, have morphed into extended military occupations.

Israelis are haunted by memories of past military failures in Lebanon. When the country embarked on a full-scale invasion in 1982, troops didn’t leave for nearly two decades, and their presence helped give rise to Hezbollah. When Israel invaded Lebanon again in 2006, they became bogged down almost immediately, losing 121 soldiers in 34 days.

“What is the alternative?” asked Amidror, saying Israel cannot live indefinitely with a conflict in the north. “For sure, there is a price,” he acknowledged, “but we will pay it.”

The Biden administration is concerned that what starts as a time- and geographically-limited operation could grow into something larger and longer term, the U.S. official said, and is discussing its concern with the Israelis.

Yet time again over the last year, Washington has appeared to be in the dark about Israel’s military intentions. American officials were given no advance notice when Israel carried out a deadly airstrike against Iranian commanders near a diplomatic facility in the Syrian capital this summer, sparking an unprecedented Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel. And White House officials were outraged when Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s lead negotiator, in Tehran at a critical point in cease-fire and hostage release talks.

Publicly, the administration has continued to say it is pressing for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. “We should have a cease-fire, now,” President Joe Biden told reporters Monday.

Privately, though, Nasrallah’s assassination — welcomed by Biden as a “measure of justice” — has changed the situation, according to the U.S. official, who said the administration had de-emphasized its calls for an immediate cease-fire in conversations with the Israelis.

Overnight Monday, the Israeli military hit an apartment building in Beirut’s Cola neighborhood, the first airstrike within the city limits. At least four people were killed and four others injured, according to the country’s Health Ministry.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, another group fighting against Israel, said that three members of its military wing were killed in the Beirut attack. The IDF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

News of the strike accelerated fears that the violence could now creep further into the capital, where many displaced families are already sleeping on the streets. Despite the unease, an increased number of shops and cafes were open Monday morning. The streets were busier too, as some people returned to work, or delivered hot meals and aid to the shelters.

“At the back of our minds, especially people who are doing the aid, is how long can we sustain,” said Wael Hajj, who was coordinating a volunteer distribution effort. “If things get worse, it’s much more difficult and we can no longer help.”

The United Nations says 100,000 people have already fled Lebanon to neighboring Syria, another country reeling from the ravages of war. People are “moving out of areas where they are in danger,” said Ivo Freijsen, a representative in Lebanon for the U.N. refugee agency. After crossing the border, though, “many still struggle to find a place to go.”

Rubin and Morris reported from Tel Aviv, El Chamaa from Beirut and Loveluck from London. Abbie Cheeseman in Beirut contributed to this report.