Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide victory is a danger for Mexico
Few doubted that Claudia Sheinbaum would win Mexico’s election on June 2nd, and become the country’s first female president. But the landslide voters delivered for her and Morena, the ruling party, surpassed expectations. She got at least 58% of the vote, a share larger than that won in 2018 by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Morena’s coalition will almost certainly obtain a supermajority in Congress. This spells danger: even before she takes office on October 1st, her ruling party will be able to shape Mexico, even by altering the constitution.
The thumping win is thanks in part to Morena’s redistributive policies, a combination of cash transfers and constant rises in the minimum wage. Ms Sheinbaum’s share of the vote was higher in poorer parts of the country, though she prevailed in all but one of Mexico’s 32 states. “I don’t receive anything but I am happy that students, old people and people of limited means have support,” says Miriam Salazar, a 42-year-old architect in Mexico City.
The fiscal deficit is already running at more than 5% of GDP. Containing it while paying for these transfers, which Ms Sheinbaum plans to expand, is just one challenge. She will have to please her supporters and party (without Mr López Obrador’s populist charisma) while reassuring the financial markets. Mexico’s growing insecurity and lacklustre economy must be urgently tackled, too.
Ms Sheinbaum, who was technocratic as Mexico City’s mayor, was conciliatory in her victory speech. She promised to rule for all Mexicans, preserve democracy, work with the United States and encourage private business and investment. But Mexico’s stockmarket fell by 6% and the peso dropped to its weakest level against the dollar in six months. The sell-off was driven by concerns over Morena’s supermajority, and the extent to which it might support Mr López Obrador’s efforts to rewrite the constitution in ways that undermine democracy and hurt business in Mexico.
Congress takes its seats one month before the new president takes office, so Mr López Obrador will have a chance to push through a package of 20 constitutional changes himself. He wants to enshrine animal welfare and a minimum wage pegged ahead of inflation. Supreme Court judges and the heads of the electoral body would be appointed by popular vote. A raft of autonomous agencies would be abolished. Control of the federal police would pass to the defence ministry, which the Supreme Court had ruled unconstitutional.
Ms Sheinbaum has openly backed these initiatives. In theory her strong personal mandate might allow her to chart her own path. But the Morena supermajority boosts Mr López Obrador’s post-presidency influence, as he controls the party, and may curb any divergent instincts she harbours. Mr López Obrador has some red lines, including the continued propping up of Pemex, the state-owned oil company that is the world’s most indebted.
Ms Sheinbaum is canny. She may find ways to make her own mark while keeping her mentor happy, perhaps by echoing his nationalist, Mexico-first rhetoric, while acting with less bombast and being friendly to business in private. She will have more space to promote her own policies in public services such as health care.
Ms Sheinbaum’s pledge to advance Mexico’s transition to green energy—a rare policy on which she diverged from Mr López Obrador while campaigning—will be a test. Plentiful clean energy is needed to spur economic growth. Foreign investors have been turned off by Mexico’s dirty, expensive electricity, meaning the country has failed to fulfil its potential as a place into which businesses diversifying away from China might expand.
The lack of a serious opposition to the government is worrying. The strongest opposition coalition, which has been led by Xóchitl Gálvez, “has been a total failure and is dead”, says Antonio Ocaranza, an analyst. This offers Morena a chance to tighten its grip, and leaves dangerously few checks and balances. ■
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