Ukraine surprises with a high-stakes raid into Russia
THREE DAYS in, Ukraine’s unexpected cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region to the north-east shows no signs of abating. Since the start of the operation on the morning of August 6th, Russia has lost full control of at least 350 sq km of its territory. Scores of its soldiers have been killed or captured. A race is on to halt the advance—and prevent the Ukrainians from digging in.
By August 8th, Ukrainian forces had progressed towards Sudzha, 10km from the border, and Korenevo, 15km inside Russia. Fierce fighting continues in both areas. Reports suggest that smaller Ukrainian units have broken away and are fighting even deeper in. Social-media footage shows the results of the fighting: destroyed buildings and dead soldiers, scattered across pockmarked roads. Videos released on the first day showed a large group of Russian prisoners being marched away under armed guard.
Much is still unclear, not least the scale of the operation. On August 7th, Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top general, claimed that a force of approximately 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been stopped. Neither aspect of that statement appears particularly accurate. Ukraine has committed units from at least four elite brigades, meaning that the strike force is probably much greater. Ukraine has mined the main road leading south-east to Belgorod, and has significant air defences in the area. Given its successful start, Ukraine may well bring in more reserves, despite its own thin lines in Donetsk province to the south.
Even by the foggy standards of war, the Kursk raid has been shrouded in a cloud of secrecy. Western governments were taken by surprise. A Ukrainian general-staff source near the border admitted he didn’t know the full picture. “We were told to pack our bags on August 4th,” he says. “The bosses didn’t say where we were headed, and we still only see part of it.” The shock, surprise and silence is reminiscent of that achieved by Ukraine prior to another lightning offensive, in Kharkiv province, in late 2022.
An intelligence source says that Ukraine has been reassured by the early successes of the operation, which, he claims, has thrown Russia into paralysis. Russia is now using elite soldiers in dangerous ways to stem the advance, he says. Ukraine on the other hand is only advancing where it made sense. “The Russians are making very stupid errors and it’s all down to their corrupt top-down management which prioritises good news over the truth.” The Kursk incursion, which follows reverses in Kyiv, Kharkiv region and Kherson, represents the “fourth big failure” of Russia’s generals in mechanised, manoeuvre warfare. “We’ve now got options and the Russians know it.”
Previous cross-border raids were mostly led by Ukraine’s military intelligence. On this occasion, the operation is more closely associated with Ukraine’s much-criticised new commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky, with regular army units joining these raids for the first time. With stakes this high, General Syrsky’s career may well be riding on it. Reports from frontline Ukrainian hospitals suggest that casualty figures are already mounting. People may still question whether it was wise to devote so many troops to the incursion while critical frontlines are thin. The answer will depend on the operation’s success.
On that, it is still too early to speculate. The general-staff source compares it to a game of chess. Ukraine’s next moves will be determined by Russia’s response. Will Russia move reserves from the nearby Kharkiv theatre, where there has been a noticeable buildup in recent days? Or from the bloody offensive in the Donbas, where Ukraine’s under-strength forces are struggling to hold the logistically important town of Pokrovsk? Releasing pressure elsewhere would be an end in itself. “Either they react and transfer more forces here, or they don’t react and we can move further.”
A larger strategic goal is likely also in play. An immediate focus is the Sudzha gas-transfer station, the only operational entry point for Russian gas on the Progress pipeline to Europe. But it is not immediately clear what control of that station could bring Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia have interests in its continued uninterrupted operation given transmission fees paid to Ukraine and the financial difficulties of Russia’s Gazprom, which is struggling under the weight of sanctions.
Russian pro-war social media suggest Ukrainians are aiming to capture the Kursk atomic station, 60km from the border, as a tit-for-tat move against Russia’s occupation of its Zaporizhia nuclear plant. The Ukrainian general-staff source suggests this is unlikely, as it would require an 80km march from the border and a larger force. “Without a properly organised force, you’ll repeat the mistakes the Russians made north of Kyiv in 2022. We cut off their lines and they were easy prey.” The fact that Ukraine has committed mechanised forces, including tanks, will compound its logistical challenge: armoured vehicles need lots of fuel and maintenance.
A more feasible aim might be to create an embarrassing “buffer zone” on the border, similar to Russia’s own attempts to create one in nearby Kharkiv over the past three months. It could even become a bargaining chip in some future negotiation. “Russia was trying to prepare a solid position,” says the intelligence source, “but now they are fucked because they can’t protect their own terrain.” Any new Ukrainian line in Russian territory would be extremely difficult to hold. But it would represent a very public slap in the face to Vladimir Putin. And for a nation longing for good news for much of the last year, that would already be something. ■
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