Japan, China revive talks with Trump vs Biden, East China Sea on agenda
“In any case, they have a far more serious thing to be worried about more immediately,” he said, referring to concerns over Taiwan and uncertainties surrounding the outcome of this year’s US election.
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BIDEN OR TRUMP: WHOEVER WINS, WE LOSE
BIDEN OR TRUMP: WHOEVER WINS, WE LOSE
Yoichi Shimada, a international-relations professor at Fukui Prefectural University, disagreed. He said the four-day visit from July 22 was the “perfect opportunity for Japan to make its position clear and warn China of what could happen if it continues to press its claims”.
The visit is an attempt to resurrect the regular reciprocal exchanges by politicians of both countries that were halted during the coronavirus pandemic.
The Japanese delegation will be led by Banri Kaieda, a 30-year-veteran of Japanese politics who is the former head of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan and presently serves as vice-speaker of the House of Representatives.
The left-leaning Kaieda is perceived as being open to greater ties with China – he studied Chinese and political science at Keio University, lists Chinese poetry as a hobby, and his father was a journalist who covered mainland China and Taiwan and named his son after the Great Wall of China (Banri no Chojo).
The Japanese delegation will be led by Banri Kaieda, a 30-year-veteran of Japanese politics, who is perceived as being open to greater ties with China. Photo: Reuters
It is not clear how many Japanese politicians will be part of the delegation, but national broadcaster NHK has reported that they will be drawn from parties across the political spectrum, including the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party.
The delegation is expected to meet Zhao Leji, the third most senior member of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee.
“Both sides will have a lot of things that they want to talk about, but one area of concern that they share is clearly the deep uncertainty surrounding the elections in the US in November,” Zinberg told This Week in Asia, adding that the Japanese side was hoping to get clarity on Beijing’s assessment of the two candidates in the US presidential race and the likely implications of either a second Joe Biden administration or a return of Donald Trump to the White House.
“If the Japanese side understands China’s position, then they can be prepared” for the election’s aftermath, he said.
Cut-outs depicting US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump at a souvenir shop in Washington. Photo: Reuters
Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally on Saturday after a major security lapse, an attack that is likely to reshape this year’s presidential race and fuel long-standing fears that the campaign could descend into political violence.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was among world leaders who on Sunday condemned the attempted assassination – as it was labelled by US Federal Bureau of Investigation – saying “we must stand firm against any form of violence that challenges democracy”.
China’s Xi Jinping expressed his “compassion and sympathy” for Trump, with a foreign ministry spokesman saying Beijing was “closely following” the incident.
“The attempt on Trump’s life will inevitably be in the politicians’ minds when they meet, especially as Japan has just marked the second anniversary of the assassination of [former prime minister] Shinzo Abe, but it is too early to say how it will impact their discussions,” Zinberg said.
“The assumption is that this attack will benefit Trump with the electorate, which Beijing and Tokyo will have to take into account as they plan for the next US president, but I am not completely sure that holds true.”
“What is true is that the coming months are going to be very rough in the US and relations with other countries will have to be managed carefully,” he added.
Former US president Donald Trump is assisted by Secret Service personnel after he was shot at a campaign rally on Saturday. Photo: Reuters
Another priority for the Japanese side would be trade as China remained the most important market for many Japanese companies, Zinberg said.
“I am also sure they will want to talk about energy security as most of the oil that Japan needs comes through the waters of East Asia and is therefore at risk in the event of a conflict breaking out over Taiwan or the South China Sea,” he said.
“There is always a possibility that if a situation escalates then Japan will suffer another ‘oil shock’, as it did in the 1970s, and a repeat of that would be the most horrible scenario for Tokyo.”
The Japanese side is also expected to reiterate that the water being released from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant has been treated and meets international safety standards and convey Tokyo’s repeated request that Beijing lift its ban on imports of Japanese seafood.
The loss of the Chinese market has had a serious impact on Japanese seafood businesses and it is unclear whether they would be able to recover their previous market share even if the ban ended, according to Zinberg, because Russia has stepped in to largely meet Chinese demand and prices are significantly lower than they were for Japanese products.
A wholesale fish market in Beijing. The Japanese delegation is expected to repeat Tokyo’s request that Beijing lift its ban on imports of Japanese seafood. Photo: AFP
Fukui Prefectural University’s Shimada is less optimistic about the outcomes from the visit.
“Kaieda is a left-leaning liberal and I believe the Chinese Communist Party expects him to support many of their positions and even work to promote them in Japan,” he said.
“China is attempting to pressure Japan in many and varied ways, on the Senkakus, on Fukushima water, on our alliances and so on, so I believe this visit should be used to make it clear to Beijing that if the coercion does not stop, then Japan will work with its allies in Europe and the US to impose sanctions that hurt China’s supply chains and its economy.”
Zinberg, however, is in favour of greater efforts to build understanding and bridges in the troubled bilateral relationship.
“I think China is also keen to improve its ties with Japan as its relationship with Russia has changed a lot in the last couple of years and there are questions over the future with the US,” he said. “Japan is acting more independently than it did in the past and China sees that as positive.
“I believe that China wants to see progress because if they were not interested then they would not even have agreed to these talks,” he added.
