Amid calls for new elections in Venezuela, opposition weighs next move

Facing this scenario, a pair of Latin American presidents with close ties to Maduro are calling for a different solution to the crisis. On Thursday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested that Venezuela hold new elections with improved conditions. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro also floated the idea, along with the possibility of a transitional shared government, a total lifting of sanctions against Venezuela and “general national and international amnesty.” Lula and Petro have been leading U.S.-backed efforts to negotiate with Maduro.

The Maduro government, as well as the opposition, has rejected the idea of new elections. “This is nonsense, not to mention stupid,” said Diosdado Cabello, a close Maduro ally, in televised remarks. “We are not going to repeat elections because Nicolás Maduro won here.”

María Corina Machado, who is the country’s most popular politician and the driving force of the opposition campaign, also said the proposal is a non-starter. She described it as a “lack of respect for the Venezuelans who gave everything.”

The only option, according to Machado and González, is to continue pressing the Maduro government to allow a transition of power in January.

“Popular sovereignty is not negotiable,” Machado told The Washington Post on Thursday. “We are now at the stage where the regime has to recognize the result of July 28 and accept the terms of a negotiated transition.”

But in private conversations, some leaders within the country’s opposition movement are eager to weigh other possible solutions, even if these mean Maduro does not hand over the presidential sash to González next year. There is a growing willingness among some opposition members to consider alternative options, including some type of power-sharing agreement or institutional changes for future elections.

These differing viewpoints could lead to divisions within the opposition movement or to disputes with Latin American leaders about the best way forward.

“There isn’t a plan. There isn’t a road map,” one person close to the opposition said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The person said it is not enough to promise people hope, adding that “international actors are understanding that the negotiation can’t focus on Maduro agreeing to leave, because he has already decided to stay.”

There has been little organized discussion within the opposition about alternative next steps, said the person, who argued that negotiations could focus on overhauling the country’s electoral council and improving conditions for future elections.

“We are in a lose-lose scenario,” the person said. “So how does the country lose the least?”

On Thursday afternoon, confusion spread among Latin American governments after reports that President Joe Biden replied “I do” when asked if he supports new elections in Venezuela. A National Security Council spokesperson later clarified that he “was speaking to the absurdity of Maduro and his representatives not coming clean about the July 28 elections.”

“It is abundantly clear that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes,” National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a post on X. “We call for the will of the people to be respected & for discussions to begin on a transition back to democratic norms.”

Brazil has yet to prepare a concrete proposal for repeat elections to present to Maduro, and there is no scheduled date for a meeting between Maduro and Lula, according to a Brazilian diplomatic official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the talks.

“It’s an idea, not an easy one, and we know that we cannot repeat the election in the same way it already happened,” the Brazilian diplomatic official said. “Our idea is to do it with international observers, with the U.S. at the table, with the end of sanctions, with amnesty for political prisoners and ending the repression. This is an idea that we are building up.”

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been involved in talks with Brazil and Colombia about Venezuela’s political crisis, said he did not consider it “prudent” to call for new elections.

Machado’s strategy aims to build international and domestic pressure that would force Maduro to negotiate an exit. She has called on Venezuelans to rally Saturday in cities around the country and the world demanding that the election results be respected and ratified. Never before has the opposition claimed such a resounding electoral victory, with thousands of voting receipts showing that González received more than twice as many votes as Maduro.

Large-scale protests, global isolation and maximum-pressure sanctions have previously failed to oust Maduro. After thousands of arrests over the past three weeks and the deaths of at least two dozen demonstrators, Venezuelans may not be willing to wage a sustained protest movement.

González, a diplomat with negotiating experience, could be privately open to alternative approaches. But it is unclear whether he can play a more influential role in directing the opposition.

Although González was the opposition’s candidate in the presidential election, the most vocal leader is Machado, who swept the country’s primaries with 92 percent of the vote but was banned by Maduro’s Supreme Court from running. González stepped in as a last-minute substitute, with Machado remaining the most prominent face of the campaign.

Some close to the opposition say Maduro would be more likely to negotiate with González than Machado, a longtime foe of the country’s socialist government.

In response to questions from The Post, González said his “leading role is clear.”

“I obtained 67 percent of the votes, and we are working as a team,” he said. “This is a negotiation based on respect for the popular will and on granting guarantees and incentives for all.”

David Smilde, a Tulane University professor specializing in Venezuela, said the opposition runs the risk of again being divided between those who are willing to negotiate and those advocating a more hard line approach — a split that Maduro could exploit.

He also argued that new elections shouldn’t be ruled out by the opposition, as long as they are part of a broader negotiated agreement including a new electoral council and a large presence of election observers. He pointed to the precedent set in gubernatorial elections in 2021 in the state of Barinas, where a repeat election led the opposition to take power in the home state of Hugo Chávez, the founder of the socialist state. New elections could also give the Maduro government time to negotiate an exit, he said. “I wouldn’t shut the door on that discussion,” he said.

Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist at the University of Denver, argued new elections would not address the structural issues at the core of Venezuela’s political crisis. Instead, he has argued for a power-sharing agreement, similar to those in Poland, Kenya, Lebanon and other countries that have resolved similar crises.

In his discussions with opposition leaders about power-sharing, he said, “I see much more receptiveness and willingness to discuss it” than in years past.

Ivan Simonovis, a former police commissioner who fled Venezuela, said work is being done behind closed doors to advance negotiations.

“I estimate that this is going to take a few months and desperation is not going to bring anything,” he said. “We are in the best position we have ever been in the last 25 years.”

Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.