Blackouts in Cuba highlight the island’s extreme energy fragility
Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s president, usually wears boxy suits with a revolutionary-red tie. But on October 20th, after days of power blackouts across the country, he went on television sporting military fatigues reminiscent of Fidel Castro, the island’s longtime dictator. The getup conveyed two messages: first, that martial-like efforts had been made to restore power, and second, a warning to protesters. Cubans should act with “discipline” and “civility”, said Mr Díaz-Canel. Anyone disturbing public order, he warned, would be “severely” punished.
Nearly 10m Cubans had been managing without power since the island’s electricity grid collapsed. Authorities were quick to place the blame on technical snafus. Small outages began a day earlier, they said, due to an unexpected surge in electricity demand from air conditioners fitted in homes and small businesses. An engineering failure at the island’s largest source of electricity, the oil-burning Antonio Guiteras power plant, prompted a “total disconnection” of the national grid, said Cuba’s energy ministry in a post on X.
To make matters worse, attempts to bring in more fuel for the island’s oil-powered plants failed after a category-one hurricane made landfall on the night of October 20th; the storm has killed six people so far. By the next afternoon, around 90% of the electricity supply had been restored in Havana, according to state-run media. But many places outside the capital remain without power.
The blackout adds to the drudgery of life in Cuba’s socialist dictatorship. Food, scarce anyhow, has rotted in fridges. Neighbourhoods have resorted to cooking what they can salvage on improvised stoves in the street. Internet traffic dropped sharply as many were unable to charge their phones.Those whose water supply relies on electric pumps had to go without. The economic backdrop is also bleak: inflation is running at 30% a year. Of late, Cubans compare their plight to the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union prompted economic hardship and regular power cuts.
The country’s superannuated power system is one part of the problem. The island relies on a handful of Soviet-era, oil-fired plants, most of which are half a century old and break down frequently. None has received proper maintenance for almost two decades. The Cuban government blames American sanctions for choking off the import of spare parts. The government has leased eight “powerships” from Turkey to use as offshore generating plants, a costly and dirty workaround.
But Cuba must still supply the fuel. This has become a problem. Cuba produces around 40,000 barrels of oil per day, but needs about 120,000 to cover its energy needs. For years discounted oil from its socialist ally Venezuela made up much of the shortfall. But Venezuela slashed its exports to Cuba this year, racked by an economic crisis and looking to capitalise on the lifting of American sanctions. Other providers, such as Russia and Mexico, have not made up the deficit (see chart). Puny foreign-currency reserves and a weak peso make it too costly to source oil on the spot market. The prime minister, Manuel Marrero, admitted last week that the country could no longer afford to buy fuel on international markets.
The government is rationing what little oil it has, throttling demand for electricity by forcing factories, nightclubs and schools to close. It is anxious to avoid a wave of social unrest. In 2021 tens of thousands of people throughout the country took to the streets after a similar outage. Smaller protests have broken out since, in 2022 and earlier this year, evidence of either a lack of fear or increased desperation.
Others voted with their feet: at least one million Cubans have fled the country since 2022, around a tenth of the total population and the largest wave of migration recorded in the island’s history. The latest blackouts mean more are likely to leave. Only a small number of protests have been reported, mostly confined to the banging of pots and pans.
Even if Cuba’s ancient fleet of oil-burning generators can be kept running, the problems will get worse. But replacing the power plants would take decades and be painfully expensive. Belatedly, the government is turning to solar panels, which offer a far cheaper method of generating electricity than burning oil (something it has promised to do for years). Vicente de la O Levy, the energy minister, has said the government plans to install some two gigawatts of solar capacity by 2028, enough to cover about a fifth of the island’s electricity needs. It is also encouraging Cubans to buy their own panels; a tough ask when average monthly take-home pay is a measly $166, enough to buy one panel that could perhaps power a fridge.
How the government will scrounge up the hard cash needed to import fuel in the meantime is another question. China or Russia might see the benefit in propping up an irritant on the doorstep ofthe United States. Absent that, radical reform is needed. The best Mr Díaz-Canel can do is a costume change. ■
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