China’s diplomatic clout in Mideast at risk as threats build around ally Iran

When Beijing brokered a historic peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year, it was seen as a milestone for China’s proactive engagement with the Middle East.

For Tehran, which has been under economic and geopolitical pressure from US President Joe Biden’s administration, the deal marked a diplomatic breakthrough and a potential opportunity to end isolation, with Beijing’s help.

However, with the downfall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, and the catastrophic loss of Hamas and Hezbollah during its war against Israel, Tehran faces mounting geopolitical threats with splintered regional proxies.

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Experts said that with Donald Trump’s hawkish Middle East policy cabinet, China-Iran relations were likely to strengthen under the common pressure.

But China’s ability to remain a mediator could be at risk amid the growing risk of confrontation between Tehran and regional powers, which could complicate China’s diplomatic legacy in the region.

“It is almost certain that Trump’s second term will continue to exert strong pressure on Iran, which, coupled with Israel’s pounding and destruction of Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah over the past year …[It] will force Iran to opt for closer cooperation with other powers, including China and Russia,” said Fan Hongda, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.

Iran has experienced economic hardship since Trump’s first presidency. After withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal – a multipolar framework to negotiate Iran’s nuclear issue – Trump imposed harsher economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic, a campaign Washington called “maximum pressure” and whose impact has lasted until today.

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