Hong Kong maintains growth forecast for 2024 as economy grows 3.3% in second quarter

“Exports of goods should sustain a positive performance if external demand holds up, though trade conflicts will present risks,” he said.

“Continued local economic expansion should lend support to fixed asset investment, but geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainties may dampen business confidence and asset markets.”

Leung said Beijing’s decision to allow more mainland Chinese residents to visit Hong Kong on a solo basis without having to join tour groups would boost market sentiment and improve employment earnings.

“But the changes in the consumption patterns of visitors and residents and the relatively strong Hong Kong dollar may continue to pose challenges,” he said.

Total exports of goods increased by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier, after growing by 6.8 per cent in the first quarter, while imports rose by 3.4 per cent.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to accelerate between 2025 and 2028 at an average of 3.2 per cent along with the global economic recovery and the city’s greater integration with the mainland.

Some experts had earlier raised concerns about economic conditions in the city and the pressure the business sector was facing as more significant than the headline figures suggested.

Amid a growing trend of people crossing the border for leisure and shopping, retail sales in June declined 9.7 per cent from a year ago, the fourth consecutive monthly contraction.

More tourists are arriving in Hong Kong, but many of them do not spend as much as visitors did in the past.

The number of mainland visitors in the first seven months rose 47.3 per cent year on year.