Portugal election: centre-right coalition on course for narrow victory
A coalition of Portuguese centre-right parties is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent socialists but fall well short of a majority, exit polls have suggested, in a closely fought snap general election in which the far-right Chega party looks set to almost triple its share of the vote and finish third.
Three polls, published shortly after voting ended at 8pm local time, indicate the Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – is forecast to finish ahead of the Socialist party (PS).
Chega is projected to come in third with a massively increased share of the vote, raising the prospect that it could act as a kingmaker in the formation a new, centre-right administration.
The surveys, published by the three main television channels SIC, RTP and TVI. Early counts mirrored the exit polls. By 9pm local time, with around 70% of ballots counted, the Democratic Alliance was on 31.5% of the vote, the PS on just under 29%, and Chega on more than 19%.
Sunday could prove a resounding win for Chega, a populist, far-right party founded five years ago by André Ventura, a former TV football pundit who was once a rising star in the PSD. The party broke through in the 2019 election, attracting 1.3% of the vote and winning its first assembly seat. Three years later, it took 7.2% of the vote and won 12 seats.
The vote was triggered after the socialist prime minister, António Costa, resigned in November after an investigation was launched into alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects.
Costa – who had been in office since 2015 and who won a surprise absolute majority in the 2022 general election – has not been accused of any crime. He said that while his conscience was clear, he felt he had no choice but to step down because the “duties of prime minister are not compatible with any suspicion of my integrity”.
He also announced that he would not be running for prime minister in the election, leaving the PS in the hands of Pedro Nuno Santos, a former infrastructure minister from the left wing of the party.
Although the PSD’s leader, Luís Montenegro, has explicitly ruled out any deals with Chega because of what he calls Ventura’s “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” views, he is likely to come under considerable pressure from his own party if Chega’s help is needed to stop the left retaining power.
Even with the backing of the smaller centre-right Liberal Initiative, any potential minority government led by the Democratic Alliance would probably still have to rely on Chega’s support to pass legislation, leaving its stability in the hands of the far-right party.
Votes permitting, the socialists could also attempt to form a leftwing government by rekindling their former pacts with the Left Bloc party and the Portuguese Communist party.
According to the Expresso newspaper, Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has broken with the convention of presidential neutrality by saying he will do everything possible to prevent Chega from reaching office, including rejecting any moves to replace Montenegro as prime minister should the right win a majority.
Ventura has hit back at the president’s reported comments, saying: “In Portugal, it’s not the president of the republic who chooses the government – it’s the voters.”
The socialists had been hoping the threat of the far right moving closer to government would rally centrist voters as it did in 2022, while the Democratic Alliance has promised change after eight years of socialist rule, saying it will promote economic growth by cutting taxes and improve squeezed public services.
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Chega, meanwhile, has sought to capitalise on widespread dissatisfaction with Portugal’s mainstream left and right parties as the country continues to suffer a housing crisis, stressed health and education systems, and low wages.
“Never in the history of Portugal has there been a greater possibility of overthrowing the bipartisan system that has been killing us for the past 50 years,” Ventura told supporters at a recent Chega rally in northern Portugal. “We have never been this close.”
The party has also made political corruption a central theme of its campaign, putting up huge billboards around the country reading: “Portugal needs a clean-up.”
The investigation that caused the collapse of Costa’s government – which examined possible “malfeasance, active and passive corruption of politicians and influence peddling” – led to searches of the environment and infrastructure ministries and of Costa’s official residence, and to the arrest of five people, among them his chief of staff. The five were subsequently released and the investigating magistrate retained only the charge of influence peddling.
It is not the only scandal dogging the PS. The former socialist prime minister José Sócrates is due to stand trial over allegations that he pocketed €34m from three companies while he was in power between 2005 and 2011. The ex-prime minister has denied any involvement in fraud or money-laundering and has maintained his innocence.
The PSD is also facing corruption allegations, with two prominent party officials in Madeira resigning recently amid a graft investigation.