Australia head into Adelaide Test against India at risk of blowing world title | Martin Pegan

1. India: 61.11%

Best possible finish: 69.30%

Remaining matches: Australia (four Tests, away, Dec-Jan)

The two-time WTC runners-up lost top spot in the standings after their 3-0 defeat to New Zealand but snatched it back, and reignited their hopes of reaching a third consecutive decider, with a commanding victory over Australia in Perth. India can now ensure their qualification for the WTC final in Lord’s next year, as well as tighten their stranglehold on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, with three wins from the remaining four Tests in Australia. But even a 3-2 series win for India in Australia would leave the door open for their foes to overtake them in the race for a WTC final place.

Jasprit Bumrah celebrates after taking the wicket of Steve Smith — Jasprit Bumrah’s star turn in the first Test against Australia has helped lift India to top spot in the WTC standings. Photograph: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

2. South Africa: 59.26%

Best possible finish: 69.44%

Remaining matches: Sri Lanka (one Test, home, Dec); Pakistan (two Tests, home, Dec-Jan)

The Proteas showed little interest in the World Test Championship when sending a second-string, and arguably even third-string, side to New Zealand earlier this year when the tour clashed with their lucrative domestic T20 tournament. South Africa put that contentious call behind them with series wins in the Caribbean and Bangladesh and are now as well-placed as any side to reach their first final. Temba Bavuma’s side can lock in a spot in the WTC decider with a second victory over Sri Lanka in the match starting on Thursday, then following up with at least one win from the two home Tests against Pakistan.

Marco Jansen celebrates with teammates after the dismissal of Sri Lanka’s Dinesh Chandimal — Marco Jansen took seven for 13 in the first innings as South Africa crushed Sri Lanka in the first Test. Photograph: Phill Magakoe/AFP/Getty Images

3. Australia: 57.69%

Best possible finish: 71.05%

Remaining matches: India (four Tests, home, Dec-Jan); Sri Lanka (two Tests, away, Jan-Feb)

The reigning champions dropped from first to third following their first Test defeat to India but their hopes of defending the title in London have not shifted dramatically as other results fell their way. Australia could now qualify for the decider with four victories from their remaining six Tests, and will even stay alive with a 3-2 series loss to India while then needing to sweep the series in Sri Lanka. Pat Cummins’ side might have their backs against the wall heading into the second Test under the lights in Adelaide but have proven in the past that these can be the times when they rise to their best.

Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon in deep discussion — Australia have been left searching for answers as they look to bounce back against India in the day-night Test in Adelaide. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP

4. Sri Lanka 50%

Best possible finish: 61.54%

Remaining matches: South Africa (one Test, away, Dec); Australia (two Tests, home, Jan-Feb)

Sri Lanka were sitting in third spot and ideally placed to overtake the loser in the Border-Gavaskar series after their own 2-0 clean sweep of New Zealand. But Dhananjaya de Silva’s side were brought crashing back to earth in South Africa when bowled out for 42 in the first innings on the way to a 233-run defeat. Bouncing back with a win in the second Test in Gqeberha starting on Thursday could set up a blockbuster series against Australia – the last for all teams in this WTC cycle – potentially with a spot in the final still up for grabs.

Sri Lanka’s Dhananjaya De Silva bats against South Africa — Sri Lanka’s hopes of qualifying for a maiden WTC final are still in their own hands. Photograph: Gallo Images/Getty Images

5. New Zealand 47.92%

Best possible finish: 55.36%

Remaining matches: England (two Tests, home, Dec)

The inaugural WCT winners were dreaming of a return to the final when they stunned India with a historic 3-0 sweep on foreign soil but were quickly handed a reality check by England in Christchurch last week. The Black Caps were later hit with a costly three-point penalty for a slow over rate to leave a spot in the final now all but out of reach. New Zealand’s fate is out of their own hands even if they win the two remaining Tests against England, as they will still require several results to fall their way including Australia beating India in three (but not four) Tests, then losing both of their matches in Sri Lanka.