Biden’s bear hug worked with Israel

Second, any Israeli government, no matter how arrogant, must be concerned with Israeli public opinion. If the Israeli public trusts and embraces the U.S. president, it will be inclined to support his views on the region and his strategic thinking. A U.S. president who they think has their best interests at heart can convince Israelis that they are best protected if their government cooperates with the United States. (Remember, in bragging that he alone could handle the U.S., Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once said, “America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction.”) Past freezes on West Bank settlements, truces in wars with Gaza and territorial concessions (including withdrawal from Gaza and the fateful decision to allow Hamas to compete in an election) came about with gentle pressure from trusted American presidents.

Given those two factors, Biden knows better than any world leader, most Republicans and some Democrats that there is a right way to influence Israeli decision-making. Republicans wrongly think that encouraging Israel’s most grandiose and aggressive inclinations is the way to achieve peace; some Democrats seem to think public heckling of Israel will bring about peace (not understanding Israel’s inclination to double down unless it feels secure).

The current situation confirms the wisdom of Biden’s tactics, honed through decades of foreign policy experience and tenure as vice president (during a presidency that too often wound up in unproductive public fights with Israel’s prime minister).

Recall how the past few weeks unfolded. After the Oct. 7 pogrom, Biden immediately rose to Israel’s defense. He rightly condemned the atrocities and defended Israel’s right and obligation to root out Hamas while cautioning that Israel must observe the laws of war. He emphasized that Palestinians were victims too and made clear a solution to the underlying Palestinian-Israeli conflict would be necessary to prevent further attacks. He also went to Israel in wartime (the only president to do so). Unsurprisingly, Israelis lionized him.

Then began the slow, steady, meticulous two-track approach. Publicly, Biden never wavered from support for Israel’s war aims. Biden increasingly joined his message of support, however, with the second part of his message: Palestinians are victims of Hamas as well. That meant greater care had to be taken to minimize civilian casualties, to get humanitarian aid to Gaza and to achieve Palestinians’ aspirations for self-determination. And he flat-out warned against Israel’s permanent reoccupation of Gaza.

In private, meanwhile, Biden used that political capital to pressure Israel for a pause and to increase humanitarian aid. He deployed an experienced team that could speak with his full backing. Though it is unclear whether Israel changed its tactics because of Biden, his constant concern about civilian casualties surely weighed on Israeli commanders’ and politicians’ minds. Coupled with his admonitions to Israel, Biden worked the phones as few U.S. presidents could. In constant contact with Qatar and Egypt and with a fully empowered negotiating team working the details, he forced all sides to reach an agreement for a pause and hostage release.

Few Middle East experts think Netanyahu ever would have agreed to a pause absent all hostages’ release if not for Biden. (To their credit, the hostage families and scores of organizations, millions of people and a 200,000-strong March for Israel kept the pressure up for a hostage deal.) Likewise, it is unlikely the hostage-exchange process would have gotten back on track Saturday night if not for Biden’s intervention.

Had Biden earlier demanded a cease-fire, as critics urged, he probably wouldn’t have been successful. And his effectiveness in pushing for the pause and hostage release would have been over. Though he got little credit domestically, his willingness to ignore unrealistic demands from left-leaning lawmakers and groups were essential to his diplomatic success.

Though the U.S. mainstream media, as it does too often, could see the weeks of diplomacy only in terms of partisan, horserace politics (Democrats divided! Biden losing young people!), Biden was accomplishing what progressives wanted: a cessation (however brief) in hostilities and the return of hostages, both necessary to end the war.

Biden has again managed to outperform expectations. Turns out he understood Netanyahu and the Middle East dynamic much better than the punditocracy and the left wing of his party.