With the United States leaving an empty chair at this weekend’s G-20 summit in Johannesburg, one question will undoubtedly loom over the meeting’s agenda: Who will fill the many global governance gaps that Washington has opened in recent months?
A new survey conducted on behalf of the Munich Security Conference asked citizens from nine G-20 member states in Europe and across the global south about their views on a world with less reliable leadership from Washington. The data shows that respondents believe the United States is abandoning its global leadership role in some, many, or all policy areas, ranging from 47 percent of respondents in Turkey to 78 percent in India. Many expressed concerns about the disruptive effects of U.S. policy on efforts to ensure global economic stability, resolve violent conflicts around the world, and fight global climate change, among other critical issues.
At the G-20 summit, leaders will have to deliver answers about how multilateral cooperation on solving global problems and upholding global public goods, such as health care and climate stability, can succeed without the United States. But popular perceptions of who is poised to step into the U.S. role are hardly unified.
As the United States retreats, European leaders frequently emphasize their desire to “have more friends” in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. But beyond new trade negotiations conducted by the European Commission, Europe has relatively few concrete initiatives to show for it. European governments have certainly been preoccupied with Russia’s war in Ukraine, growing economic uncertainty at home, and the mounting troubles in the trans-Atlantic relationship. But the reasons for their reluctant outreach may go much deeper—and reflect broader skepticism about the merits of deeper collaboration with governments in other parts of the world.
This skepticism is certainly evident within European societies, as reflected in the public opinion data we commissioned. When asked how much powerful non-Western countries—specifically, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey—are pulling their weight in solving global problems on a scale from zero (not pulling their weight at all) to 10 (pulling their weight completely), European respondents in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom rated these countries’ contributions at five or (well) below. When asked who they believed would assume greater responsibility if the United States no longer led on global problem-solving, Europeans were likewise not optimistic about the role of the global south. On aggregate, only 26 percent believed it was very or somewhat likely that powerful non-Western countries such as Brazil, India, and South Africa would assume greater responsibility. A slightly higher share believed China might step up—but even then, only 31 percent.
These perceptions are at odds with the many examples of global south leadership on solving global problems and providing global public goods, which European cooperation could build on. If not judged solely by financial but also diplomatic, operational, and knowledge contributions, leadership from countries in the global south proves widespread. It cuts across different policy domains, including contributions to peace and security; global economic stability; the fight against climate change and global health crises; and the protection of human rights and dignity. And such leadership is not restricted to the more powerful states. The world’s top refugee hosts in absolute and per capita terms, for example, are countries in the global south, including Iran, Turkey, Uganda, and Jordan. While Western countries lead on financing United Nations peacekeeping operations, the top 10 troop contributors are global south states, starting with Nepal and Rwanda.
Likewise, global south governments have successfully mediated in many protracted conflicts. Cuba, for instance, brokered the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla group; China helped seal the 2023 Iran-Saudi Arabia deal; and Qatar led the 2020 agreement between the United States and the Taliban. The fight against climate change has seen particularly active diplomatic and thought leadership by the global south, especially by Pacific island states, which have launched a wide variety of initiatives pushing for stronger climate targets. And, as exemplified by Cuba’s model for local disaster risk reduction management, countries in the global south have led on south-south knowledge sharing and capacity building, providing expertise tailored to the distinct needs of developing societies.
Our survey data suggests that within European societies, there is very little awareness of these multifaceted contributions. While we cannot directly infer state policy from public perceptions, government-level debates often center on how countries in the global south, especially the more powerful ones, have failed to step up on financing global public goods (such as China and other countries with high emissions) or how they have not weighed in on challenges that strongly affect the West, such as Russia’s war against Ukraine. Many in Europe may therefore be aware of how countries in the global south are sitting on the fence about Russia’s war, but few know about Cuba’s role as a peace mediator, Jordan’s as a top refugee host nation, or Nigeria’s in ensuring a peaceful transition of power in Gambia in 2017.
This is not to say European frustrations are not legitimate. But focusing too intently on these specific disappointments may blind the West to the many global south-led efforts that cooperation could build on. To fill the widening gaps in global leadership, Europeans would be well advised to take a more nuanced look at the contributions of governments in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East when it comes to promoting international peace and security, economic stability, global health, climate protection, and human rights and dignity. Increased awareness of what such countries have already done—and continue to do—in these areas is a necessary condition for closer collaboration, durable partnerships, and an effective division of labor going forward. As the G-20 summit approaches, the countries of the global south may already be starting to fill the United States’ empty chair. Europeans would do well to pay attention.