Iowa caucuses 2024: Donald Trump maintains huge lead over rivals as voters prepare to select Republican candidate – live

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Good morning, US politics blog readers. The 2024 US presidential election begins in earnest in Iowa on Monday, when voters across the midwestern state will battle freezing temperatures to gather in the unique caucus format to select their Republican candidate of choice.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before Monday night’s caucuses found former president, Donald Trump, maintaining a formidable lead over his opponents, supported by 48% of likely caucus-goers.

After trailing the two-term Florida governor, Ron DeSantis for months, the latest poll showed Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, in second place in Iowa, winning the support of 20% of likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to DeSantis’s 16%, with Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.

Should DeSantis finish lower than second place, it could prove fatal to his ability to continue competing in New Hampshire, the next state to vote, and later in the primaries.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign hopes that a victory in Iowa would give him enough momentum to win the next contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, putting him ahead of the field for Super Tuesday on 5 March.

Donald Trump supports carry placards as they brave the below zero temperatures to attend a rally in Indianola, Iowa, on 14 January 2024.
Donald Trump supports carry placards as they brave the below zero temperatures to attend a rally in Indianola, Iowa, on 14 January 2024. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

If he exceeds 50% of the vote in Iowa, Trump will earn what he predicted would be “a historic landslide”.

The temperature in parts of the state could dip as low as -14F/26C, with forecasters warning that “dangerously cold wind chills” as low as 45 degrees below zero fahrenheit were possible through to noon on Tuesday.

The Florida senator, Marco Rubio, on Sunday become the 24th Republican senator to endorse Trump for president, meaning he is now one Republican senator short of securing the majority support of the GOP senators.

Former Republican presidential candidate and North Dakota governor, Doug Burgum, the North Dakota governor, also endorsed Trump for president on Sunday.

Key events

The MyPillow chief, Mike Lindell, a close ally and cheerleader for Donald Trump and his bogus stolen election claims, is expanding his own conspiratorial TV network, while aggressively stumping for Trump again and fighting defamation lawsuits from two electronic voting firms, one of which wants over $1bn in damages.

The moves by Lindell show the continuing presence of powerful parts of the pro-Trump movement, undeterred by the extensive legal peril their false claims of election fraud due to electronic voting machines have caused them.

His expansion of his television network also shows the growing power of rightwing media as the 2024 race for the White House gets under way, and its ability to elevate conspiracy theories.

You can read the full story by my colleague, Peter Stone, here:

US president, Joe Biden, and the Democratic National Committee have said they raised more than $97m (£76m) in the final three months of last year.

The Biden campaign said it took in $235m (£185m) from its launch last April until the end of 2023 and finished the year with $117m (£92m) in cash on hand – which it said was the highest total amassed by any Democratic candidate at this point in the cycle.

It added that over 520,000 donors made 926,000-plus contributions in the last quarter of 2023.

Julie Chavez Rodriguez, the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign manager, said:

This historic haul- proudly powered by strong and growing grassroots enthusiasm – sends a clear message: the team Biden-Harris coalition knows the stakes of this election and is ready to win this November.

Across our coalition, we are seeing early, sustained support that is helping us scale our growing operation across the country and take our message to the communities that will determine this election.

Our democracy and hard-fought basic rights and freedoms are on the line in 2024, and these numbers prove that the American people know the stakes and are taking action early to help defeat the extreme Maga Republican agenda again.

Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have both expressed confidence that they would exceed expectations on Monday.

DeSantis – whose pitch to voters has been that he would replicate his conservative remaking of Florida on the national stage – told Fox News on Sunday: “I have a record of doing well as the underdog … we’re gonna do well.”

“The only numbers that matter are the ones that we’re going up and everybody else went down,” Haley told the network. “And that shows that we’re doing the right thing.”

Ron DeSantis at a campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa.
Ron DeSantis at a campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA
Nikki Haley holds final rally in Adel before Iowa caucus day.
Nikki Haley holds final rally in Adel before Iowa caucus day. Photograph: Gage Skidmore/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock

The Iowa caucuses begin at 8pm ET on Monday evening (1am GMT on Tuesday). Caucus participants will gather inside more than 1,500 schools, churches and community centers to debate their options, in some cases for hours, before casting secret ballots.

To find out more about the mechanics of the Iowa caucuses and the influence they will have on the 2024 US election, you can read this useful explainer by my colleague, Martin Pengelly, here:

Good morning, US politics blog readers. The 2024 US presidential election begins in earnest in Iowa on Monday, when voters across the midwestern state will battle freezing temperatures to gather in the unique caucus format to select their Republican candidate of choice.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before Monday night’s caucuses found former president, Donald Trump, maintaining a formidable lead over his opponents, supported by 48% of likely caucus-goers.

After trailing the two-term Florida governor, Ron DeSantis for months, the latest poll showed Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, in second place in Iowa, winning the support of 20% of likely Republican caucus-goers, compared to DeSantis’s 16%, with Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.

Should DeSantis finish lower than second place, it could prove fatal to his ability to continue competing in New Hampshire, the next state to vote, and later in the primaries.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign hopes that a victory in Iowa would give him enough momentum to win the next contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, putting him ahead of the field for Super Tuesday on 5 March.

Donald Trump supports carry placards as they brave the below zero temperatures to attend a rally in Indianola, Iowa, on 14 January 2024. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

If he exceeds 50% of the vote in Iowa, Trump will earn what he predicted would be “a historic landslide”.

The temperature in parts of the state could dip as low as -14F/26C, with forecasters warning that “dangerously cold wind chills” as low as 45 degrees below zero fahrenheit were possible through to noon on Tuesday.

The Florida senator, Marco Rubio, on Sunday become the 24th Republican senator to endorse Trump for president, meaning he is now one Republican senator short of securing the majority support of the GOP senators.

Former Republican presidential candidate and North Dakota governor, Doug Burgum, the North Dakota governor, also endorsed Trump for president on Sunday.