Biden scrambles to defuse the ticking Iran-Israel time bomb

The risk of a devastating regional war remains uncomfortably high. But White House officials said Tuesday they believe Biden’s efforts may be paying off. Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation after last Wednesday’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, is still a wild card, officials said.

The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response. The Iranian regime is said to have conducted similar targeted attacks in third countries.

Tehran may also be dissuaded by the U.S. show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations. “Iran understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official messaged me.

U.S. messages to Iran have also made clear that the risk of a major escalation is extremely high, with serious consequences for the stability of the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Biden’s diplomacy with Netanyahu has been just as complex. Last Thursday, the two had a sharp telephone conversation in which Biden complained that the Israeli leader was obstructing U.S. efforts for a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza. Biden is said to have pressed Netanyahu to be a “good partner,” speaking in a salty voice that was more “Scranton Joe” than “Washington Joe,” according to a knowledgeable source.

But since the contentious phone call, Netanyahu has moved toward the U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal. As of last week, Netanyahu was insisting on changes in the U.S.-negotiated formula that mediators feared would be dealbreakers. This week, he is said to have advised at least one member of his right-wing coalition that he supports the pact without amendments.

Netanyahu’s previous demands had included two provisions to prevent Hamas from reestablishing itself after the cease-fire. He wanted Israeli checkpoints to screen refugees moving from southern Gaza back to homes in the north. And he wanted a significant Israeli troop presence along the Egypt-Gaza border to stop Hamas’s smuggling.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other top Israeli security officials believed these amendments weren’t worth derailing an agreement that could free the remaining hostages, arguing that other measures would check any Hamas resurgence. These officials complained increasingly loudly that Netanyahu was wasting time and jeopardizing the hostages’ lives.

Biden’s frustration with Israel grew after the Haniyeh assassination, which came a day after the killing of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in retaliation for a missile attack that killed nearly a dozen on a playground in Magdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In the American view, these operations were tactically brilliant but strategically unwise.

But the administration concluded that the hard-nosed tactics had consensus support in Israel. For example, after visiting Magdal Shams, Gallant is said to have personally given the order to eliminate the Hezbollah military chief. And senior Israeli defense and intelligence officials justified the Haniyeh strike because it came at a rare moment of opportunity that had to be seized despite the danger it would disrupt U.S. mediation.

Administration officials recognize that some elements of the cease-fire and hostage-release deal will be hard for Israelis to swallow. Fifty Palestinian prisoners, some with life sentences, would be freed for every Israeli hostage. Given that heavy price, Israel wants to know how many of the hostages are alive. These are among the details that mediators are struggling to pin down.

“The United States stands firmly behind the cease-fire and hostage release deal that is now on the table,” the senior administration official messaged me. “All that’s left are issues surrounding the implementation of the deal. We are prepared to push this to closure.”

The Gaza war has revealed a tension in the U.S.-Israel relationship that has troubled Biden, as it has many previous presidents. As Israel’s strongest supporter, the United States faces a kind of Catch-22. Israel demands military freedom of action, a right to defend itself by itself. But at the same, it expects U.S. help if it’s attacked — and perhaps to join in offensive military actions as well. That’s an awkward passivity for a superpower.

But with the guns of August dangerously close to a full-scale barrage, Biden has decided that the best way to prevent disaster is through a combination of deterrence and diplomacy. For all Biden’s past frustration with Netanyahu, the White House message Tuesday was that there was “no daylight” between America and Israel.