Most say New Zealand is on the wrong track – can it avoid a drift to populism?

New Zealand has a well-earned reputation for moderation in politics. For a long time the country has tended to give altogether positive assessments of leaders’ efforts to tackle social and economic problems.

When Jacinda Ardern’s government was re-elected with a historic parliamentary majority in 2020, analysis from pundits and pollsters indicated that it came on the back of about 20 years of favourable public perception of New Zealand’s moderate governments, regardless of their specific colour and flavour.

For the best part of two decades, most people believed things were pretty much on the right track. Bucking a global trend to populism, conspiracy and polarising distrust in governments, the public backed Ardern’s performance at the height of the pandemic. It seemed at that time to be a safe bet that New Zealand would continue a recent history of giving governments of both persuasions nine years at the top before the political metronome swung back like clockwork, set to a uniquely Kiwi beat.

But today, there are signs these traditions are set for a major disruption. Cracks have started to form. While New Zealand has a proud record of avoiding Trumpian polarisation, it can no longer consider itself immune, as serious discontent with current economic realities reigns supreme.

These are some of the findings from our new monthly online poll, of 1,100 adults in New Zealand. The Guardian Essential poll New Zealand tracks voting intention and public attitudes to key topical political issues. The poll will be led by our New Zealand-based quantitative researcher. We will discuss questions with the Guardian and publish them in this masthead and at essentialreport.co.nz every second Wednesday of the month.

In our inaugural poll, we’ve heard loud and clear that New Zealand isn’t feeling the love from its leaders. Respondents rate the direction of the nation poorly, with a clear majority saying it’s on the wrong track.

Why? Well, when we asked voters in an open-ended question what would make New Zealand better, people across age groups, gender and geography pointed to serious personal hardships. Voters chiefly asked for new policies to address the rising cost of living: groceries, housing and beyond. They want to be better-paid and have job security. Coming in a distant third were measures to address crime.

A careful political analysis by the current Hipkins Labour government should look beyond any short-term implications; and while these responses will certainly be sobering reading for the incumbent, the solutions on offer by the alternatives don’t appear to resonate either.

Current numbers point to a National/ACT majority come October, but there are also early signs that polarisation and negativity is increasing. That means things are well and truly up for grabs.

Essential will seek to avoid fuelling the polling horse race by publishing figures that represent voters who are unsure of their final vote. No political polling is perfect. The results are not predictors, but rather an indication that requires serious and varied analysis.

Today in New Zealand, nearly 60% of those employed feel they are working hard but struggling to get ahead. Tomorrow, they’ll want a new path forward. Longer-term political shifts will probably be uncovered if the nation is forced to run an ultramarathon across a bruising economic landscape.

When it comes to social and economic inequality, there’s a bleak outlook – things are getting worse, not better, in the minds of most.

Of course, there’s still reason to feel confident. The most extreme mainstream figure New Zealand has come up with to date has been Winston Peters, who for all his bluster ended up in a working alliance with Jacinda Ardern.

With New Zealand on the “wrong track” in the minds of most – can it avoid a drift to populism like other countries around the world? The sensible centre has held firm for a long time, but October will test its grip.

• Peter Stahel is the managing director of Essential, a progressive strategic communications and research company.