Russia closes in on Donetsk city despite Ukraine’s successes elsewhere

“[Russian forces] are moving toward the outskirts of Pokrovsk. We see — it is no secret,” said Katerina Yanzhula, head of information policy in the Pokrovsk military administration, by telephone, adding that it was unclear how much longer the city could hold out. “Maybe the situation there will somehow change — we hope that the enemy will stop somewhere on the approaches to Pokrovsk, that our troops will repel them.”

On Monday, commander of Ukrainian forces Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed that “heavy fighting” was taking place around Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian general staff posted on Facebook that Russian forces had tried to storm their positions 45 times in the past 24 hours.

Syrsky also said that Kyiv’s forces were “doing everything necessary” to protect the town of Toretsk, some 40 miles east of Pokrovsk, where the Ukrainians were also coming under heavy pressure.

Open source maps show Russian forces approaching the villages of Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar and Novohrodivka, to the east of Pokrovsk — which could indicate that a Russian breakthrough is imminent, experts say.

“There’s some evidence that the Russians are actually engaging the last proper defensive line outside of the town outside of Pokrovsk,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst with the Center for New American Security.

The loss of Pokrovsk, a logistical hub at the junction of two major roads in eastern Ukraine, would open the door to further Russian advances in this eastern industrial region that has long been the focus of its attack.

City officials are imploring inhabitants to leave. From a population of some 86,000 before Russia’s full-scale invasion, around 53,000 remained, and up to 500 people leave every day, Yanzhula said.

“Don’t delay — leave well in advance, collect your things,” head of the city military administration Serhiy Dobryak said in a video posted on Telegram on Thursday. “The situation will only get worse, it won’t get better.”

But even as Russian forces advance in the east, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian troops were “achieving their goals” in Russia’s western Kursk region hundreds of miles to the north, where Kyiv’s forces launched an audacious incursion almost two weeks ago.

While congratulating the troops for their efforts, Zelensky also told the United States, Britain and France that “there is a need for faster delivery of supplies from our partners. We strongly ask for this. There are no vacations in war.”

Ukrainian forces have also “damaged” a third bridge over the Seym river in the Kursk region, after attacks on two other structures the previous week, Russian officials said Monday.

Ukrainian officials said that the bridge attacks hamper Russian troop movements. In a video, a Russian investigative committee representative said “targeted shelling using missile and artillery weapons at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure” struck a bridge the day before in the village of Karyzh. The video was posted on the Telegram channel of Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Russian TV anchor. Ukrainian officials deny that they target residential buildings.

Russia’s steady advance points to a possible weakness in Ukraine’s strategy, analysts said, as Kyiv’s hopes to limit Russian gains in the east so far are not being realized.

“The picture in the Donbas looks rather concerning to me,” said Gady, the military analyst, referring to the rust belt area in eastern Ukraine where Pokrovsk, Toretsk and other sites are situated.

Russia continues to hold a large advantage in manpower and firepower over Ukrainian forces, he said.

“The larger question is, what kind of reserves are now no longer available” in Pokrovsk which would have otherwise been available had there not been an operation in Kursk, Gady said.

“War is always about making choices,” Gady said. “The question is, is this the right choice to commit forces to expand the front line” into Russia, “or would it have been wiser to hold back reserves [and] stabilize the front line in the Donbas?”

However, other analysts saw a trade-off in Kyiv’s strategy.

“At present, however, it seems that Ukrainian territorial gains near Kursk are more important than territorial losses near Pokrovsk,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan defense consultancy, said.

“Secondly, even if Russians approach the city, they will need to take it, which will likely be a costly task as urban warfare is,” Muzyka said. “If Ukrainians dig in properly, they will have a chance of inflicting high losses on Russian units.”

He added, however, that this “all boils down to manpower and the extent to which Kyiv is willing to defend the area.”

Isabelle Khurshudyan, Serhii Korolchuk and Anastacia Galouchka contributed to this report.