Japan v Samoa: Rugby World Cup 2023 – live

Previously: Samoa are dominant in the head-to-head, having won 13 of their 17 previous meetings with Japan, including a 24-22 warm-up victory in Sapporo this year. That ended a run of three straight wins for the emerging Brave Blossoms, who beat Samoa in the pool stages in both 2015 and 2019.

The Samoa head coach, Seilala Mapusua, has been forced into a late change with his captain, Chris Vui, unable to play. He is replaced in the second row by Steven Luatua, with Brian Alainu’u’ese moving on to the bench. Fritz Lee is the new captain – the teams below have been updated.

A very interesting (and troubling) read from Raphaël Jucobin:

Japan Lemeki, Matsushima, Riley, Nakamura, Naikabula, Matsuda, Nagare; Inagaki, Horie, Gu, Cornelsen, Fakatava, Leitch, Labuschagne, Himeno (c).

Replacements: Sakate, Millar, Ai Valu, Dearns, Shimokawa, Saito, S Lee, Osada.

Samoa Paia’aua, Fidow, Manu, Leuila, B Lam, Leali’ifano, Taumateine; Lay, S Lam, Alo-Emile, Luatua, McFarland, Taleni Seu, F Lee (c), Taufua.

Replacements: Malolo, Lay, Alaalatoa, Alainu’u’ese, Motuga, Matavao, Fomai, Toala.

It’s officially crunch time for these two sides after remarkably similar starts in Pool D. Both teams enjoyed encouraging, if imperfect, victories over Chile but then came up short against Tier 1 opposition; Japan were seen off by England, Samoa outlasted by Argentina.

Now they meet in Toulouse with the battle for second place wide open. Amid the swirl of permutations, there are some certainties. Whoever wins here will progress to the quarter-finals if they also win their final game, when Samoa face England and Japan take on Argentina.

Beyond that, it gets complicated – but with the Pumas playing bottom side Chile on Saturday, the losers here today will be more concerned about a top-three finish (and qualification for 2027) than advancing to the knockout stages.

In a pool stage peppered with lopsided scores, this one really could go to the wire. Both sides have experience of crashing the knockout stage party, and of valiant, painful early exits. It’s too close to call, but we’ll have fun finding out.