Which way will swing voters lean in America’s election?

M eet Michael, a 40-year-old from suburban Washington state, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but will probably vote for Donald Trump on November 5th. Michael is fake: he is a statistical construction, dreamt up by The Economist's data team and our build-a-voter model. According to our data he represents one of the demographic groups that is most likely to have shifted away from Democrats since 2020, and provides insights into the appeal of Mr Trump and the challenge facing Kamala Harris.

Our model was built using survey data from YouGov, an online pollster. We combined its survey results on various demographic groups since January 2023 to predict how a hypothetical voter like Michael might cast his ballot.

The model finds that most Americans are predictably partisan (see the blue and red quadrants on the chart). Between the election in 2020 and today, 43% of respondents are sticking with Mr Trump and 46% with Democrats.

The grey quadrants represent just 3% of respondents who have switched between the main candidates since 2020. Our model is incredibly detailed: Michael—the most popular name for boys born in Washington in 1984—is a black man with a postgraduate degree. On Sundays he attends an evangelical church with his wife. Our model finds that this demographic had a 13% chance of voting Republican in 2020; that has now risen to 53% (see chart).

The number of men who fit this exact profile will be very small. But the combination of variables point to a larger challenge for Ms Harris. For one thing, black voters are broadly drifting away from the Democratic Party. Democratic presidential candidates have won as much as 97% of the black vote in recent elections, but our model shows that Ms Harris’s support among black voters is almost six percentage points lower than it was for Mr Biden in 2020. That could be enough to swing the election in states such as Georgia.

Young black voters aged 18-24 are especially Trump-curious: 16% of women and 29% of men in this group say they plan to vote for him. An increasing share of black voters say they trust Republicans more than Democrats on the economy. That explains a broader trend: most voters who have shifted away from Democrats—regardless of race—say that inflation is their top concern, followed by jobs and the economy.

Swinging the other way is Emily, another fictitious voter, aged 20 from a suburb in Texas. Emily—the most common name for girls born in Texas in 2004—identifies as a straight, Asian Catholic who dropped out of university before finishing her degree. Less than half of people like Emily say they would have voted for Mr Biden in 2020, according to our model. Now some 73% say they will vote for Ms Harris.

Again, the number of Emilys in America will be very small. But some of her demographic traits point to broader patterns. Asian voters—who cover a hugely diverse group in YouGov polls—are one of the fastest-growing demographic groups in America, but their political leaning has been hard to pin down. Polls suggest that a growing number identify as independents (31% in 2024 compared with 25% in 2020), which makes them more likely to switch sides in elections. Asian women like Emily may also be more inclined to vote for Ms Harris because of the vice-president’s own ethnicity and gender, and because of her campaign’s outreach to Asian-Americans.

Gender, regardless of race or ethnicity, has been central to both campaigns in 2024, and not just for the obvious reason that a man is running against a woman. Polling suggests that Americans are much more likely to believe Ms Harris would make things better for women and Mr Trump for men. White women—a majority of whom voted for Mr Trump in 2020—now appear to be swinging back towards the Democrats, especially among those who cite abortion as one of the most important issues in this election.

Our model is more indicative of the popular vote (ie, how Americans will vote across the country) than of the electoral vote (how they will vote by state). But the demographic patterns suggest that Democrats look vulnerable among black voters in swing states, and Republicans among women. If pollsters are right, this might be the closest election in two decades—Mr Trump and Ms Harris are separated by no more than two percentage points in swing states. The outcome will be decided by the relatively small number of voters who can still be swayed by either candidate. ■

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Which way will swing voters lean in America’s election?

Our build-a-voter model shows where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump look particularly vulnerable

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