China unloads more US Treasury bills as odds of Fed rate cuts grow slim

“Beijing is concerned about the impending rate reductions in the US, which will affect returns.”

Following a speech from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, economists now expect a further delay of cuts to the US benchmark rate, with reductions not predicted until September or even as late as next year.

Is bigger better? What’s the state of China’s US$3 trillion forex war chest?

The US dollar index reached a six-month high of 106 on Wednesday.

Beijing, vigilant in the protection of its overseas assets, has slashed its holdings of US Treasury bills by 25 per cent since early 2021 to the tune of US$280 billion.

Its position hit a 14-year low of US$769.6 billion in October 2023, a decline commonly attributed to a conscious effort to diversify its holdings.
Zhao noted that shifts in overseas investments are highly dependent on context, mentioning Beijing has increased its investments in gold – a commodity noted for its reliability – after an analysis of the external environment.

Analysts said China’s moves to diversify its assets are in keeping with rapid changes to geopolitics and its erratic relations with the US.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said further sell-offs are possible even though US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen brought up the issue with her Chinese counterparts during an official visit earlier this month.

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US Treasury chief Janet Yellen leaves China after ‘difficult conversations’, overcapacity gripes

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“I think the minute she said that the US wouldn’t take ‘anything off the table’ in response to China’s overcapacity, [Beijing] wanted to give a signal that they were serious about dumping US Treasuries,” she said.

Officials from China and the US met in Washington on Tuesday to exchange their views on financial stability, regulatory cooperation, cross-border payment and combating money laundering as part of the recently established bilateral financial working group. No details were provided, however.

Garcia-Herrero noted that the combined holdings of Europe and Japan are bigger than China’s, meaning the US “could mitigate the sell-off” without “a major impact”.