How Donald Trump is shaping other countries’ politics

THE PRESIDENT’S ability to bend reality is a political superpower. Before last year’s election, our YouGov polling showed that just 12% of Republican voters thought that Canada was “unfriendly” or an “enemy”. In the most recent survey, which took place between March 22nd and 25th, that share has more than doubled to 27%. Similarly, last year 17% of Republicans viewed the EU as “unfriendly” or as an “enemy”; that has now grown to 29%. America’s allies can choose whether to be alarmed by the trend, or comforted by the fact that even now only 30% of Republicans consider them to be enemies.

Political scientists often say that public opinion in America is thermostatic. What that means is that when one party wins, voters move slightly in the other direction to rebalance politics. And indeed when Mr Trump was in the White House before, the modal voter became a bit more Democratic. Then when Joe Biden was president, the modal voter became a bit more Republican, which resulted in Mr Trump winning in 2024. Now he is in office, public opinion is shifting back on the margin.

This is true of presidential approval ratings. It is also true on individual issues: support for immigration increased when Mr Trump was in office last time and declined when Mr Biden was sworn, as voters adjusted the thermostat. Mr Trump’s enthusiasm for committing illegal immigrants with tattoos to indefinite imprisonment with no trial in El Salvador will probably have the effect of boosting support for immigration again.

Less noticed, is how American politics in the Trump era is shaping public opinion in other rich democracies. Voters outside America also seem to be behaving thermostatically. In Canada, Britain and France, voters have responded to Mr Trump’s return to the White House by expressing support for parties and leaders on the centre and centre-left. The success of the MAGA movement has helped to revive the fortunes of both Emmanuel Macron and Sir Keir Starmer. It is hard to see how Mark Carney would have become Canada’s prime minister without Mr Trump’s threats to take over northern North America.

Since Mr Trump’s election win, the share of Canucks, Brits and Frenchies with a favourable view of the United States has decreased. The same happened in 2016 and during the second Iraq war. But the average disguises another interesting pattern. On the European hard right—parties like the AfD in Germany, the Brothers of Italy, National Rally in France—voters have become more favourably disposed towards America since Mr Trump won (see chart).

Voters on the European hard right see a champion in Mr Trump and no doubt hope that having an ally in the White House will boost their own electoral fortunes. Yet if it is true that America is now exporting its thermostatic politics, these parties will probably fare better when he is out of office and there is a Democratic president to complain about. Then the cycle will begin again. ■

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