Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th
ABRAHAM LINCOLN won a presidential election in civil-war-torn America in 1864, and FDR secured his fourth term in 1944 while American troops were in action across the globe. Winston Churchill, by contrast, avoided the electorate until the war in Europe was over in 1945, at which point he was turfed out. Holding an election when enemies are occupying your territory or raining bombs on it, and when huge numbers of your citizens are away fighting, is tricky. Not holding one is tricky in a different way, opening those in power to the charge of illegitimacy. That is the bind that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, finds himself in, as his five-year term expires on May 20th. He cannot hold elections now, but he must prepare to hold them eventually.
Ukraine’s constitution is confusing. Article 103 states that the president is elected for a five-year term; but Article 108 says that he or she exercises power until a new president is inaugurated. A longstanding law (though not a constitutional provision) says that elections cannot be held when martial law is in force, as it has been in Ukraine since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Russian propagandists will crow that Mr Zelensky is “illegitimate” after May 20th, tactfully ignoring the pantomime of Vladimir Putin’s re-election earlier this year. Ukraine’s Western backers and most jurists insist that Mr Zelensky’s position is nothing to worry about. In Kyiv, though, the president’s enemies mutter that the situation is untenable, and there are rumours of senior resignations or even (though this seems fanciful) of a coup.
The fighting could last for years, which means martial law could, too. On May 12th Mr Putin fired his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, replacing him with a technocrat; a sign that he expects a long war of attrition and wants a better military-industrial base with which to sustain it. As long as he is not losing, which for now he is not, war suits Mr Putin: it is his most persuasive excuse for the repression that keeps him in power.
As the war drags on, Mr Zelensky’s popularity will be tested further. Already his star power is waning. Some Ukrainians wonder if a different leader could have fought more effectively, or found a way to negotiate some kind of peace. The president insists his aim is still to recover all of Ukraine’s lost land, which seems unachievable. The government is under fire for alleged corruption and the centralisation of power in the hands of a tiny circle. It has bungled the mobilisation of fresh troops: many front-line units are down to 70% or so of their strength. After a long delay, a new conscription law is in place, but it will take months for its effects to be felt on the battlefield.
In principle holding elections would buttress the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government, improve accountability and ensure that the country’s liberal character is preserved. But holding them now is impractical. The Russians are pressing on. Heavy missile barrages that restarted in March have knocked out most of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generation, causing rolling blackouts. And on May 10th Russia launched a push back into Kharkiv province, from which it was expelled by the Ukrainians in September 2022. Its objective is not yet clear; one aim may simply be to force Ukraine to pull troops back to defend the country’s second city, making it easier for Russia to make gains in the Donbas region farther south. Another may be to bring artillery within range of the city and make it uninhabitable.
Ukraine should be able to resist, and in the coming months it will be bolstered by a new package of military and financial aid approved by America’s Congress in April. But still, Mr Zelensky needs to address rather than evade the questions raised by the end of his formal presidential term. He should acknowledge that he needs eventually to hold an election, and lay out plans for how one might be organised. It will be hard: Russia will doubtless bar voting in areas it occupies and bomb polling booths in areas it doesn’t. But a country as ingenious as Ukraine can surely find ways to give its people a proper say in how they are governed. One of the many reasons why they don’t want to be swallowed by Russia is that Russians under Mr Putin have no such choice. Rather than suspend democracy indefinitely, Mr Zelensky should lay out plans to strengthen it. ■