Rishi Sunak tightening the gap on Keir Starmer’s Labour after Tory campaign blitz, new poll shows
THE first sign of polls tightening emerged today with one showing Labour’s lead down six points since March.
After a weekend policy blitz, Tory MPs will seize on the JL Partners survey showing the gap between Labour and Conservatives down to 12 points.
The poll undertaken for the left-wing Rest Is Politics podcast has Labour on 40 to the Tories 28 percent.
The same firm had Labour leading by 18 points in March, and 15 points in May.
Given such numbers would hand Starmer the keys to No10, morale amongst Tory MPs will likely remain low, unless the government can turn things around quickly.
But in glimmers of hope for them, JL Partners say “the principal reason for this is a shift amongst over-65s, with the Conservatives going from a 10-point lead over Labour to a 20-point lead with this age group.”
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And they say Reform are getting squeezed, with less than a quarter of former Conservative voters saying they would consider the right-wing challengers - “a 10 point drop on early May when the number stood at a third.”
However a separate poll carried over the Bank Holiday weekend for Survation has Labour still ahead by 23 points, 47 to 24 points.
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And another by the firm Redfield and Wilton have Labour ahead by 23 points, with a whopping 46 to the Tories’ 23 per cent.
With big announcements on National Service and a push to win back the silver voter, Rishi Sunak is seeking to keep July 4’s General Election competitive.
Labour have led by double digits for months - but Conservative campaign chiefs have vowed to throw the kitchen sink to try close the gap.
Tory strategists also want as many debates between the PM and opposition hopeful - with Sunak challenging Sir Keir Starmer to six.
The pair are set to come head to head for the first time next week in a showdown hosted by ITV.
But Labour are determined to limit the number of one on one battles to just two as they try to guard their commanding lead in the polls.
JL Partners explained their poll: "Though the public still expect Starmer to win (with 51 per cent believing he will be Prime Minister versus Sunak’s 15 per cent), his lead has begun narrowing.
"Labour’s lead is now lower than the 15 point lead in early May, and the 18 point lead in April. Despite the tightening, Starmer’s lead on who would make the best PM has remained steady since early April with a 12-point advantage.
"The Conservative 2019 coalition continues to be fragmented. The Conservatives are holding on to just under half of their 2019 voters and 14 per cent still say they ‘Don’t know’.
"The big shift that has happened is amongst the over-65s. In early May, the Tories had a ten point lead with the over-65s (39 per cent to Labour’s 29 per cent). That is now a 20-point lead: 44 per cent for the Tories and 23 per cent for Labour.
"This shift is outside of the margin of error and is statistically significant. Labour retains a significant lead amongst all other age groups.
"Additionally, fewer Conservative voters (23 per cent) have said they would consider voting Reform UK, almost 4 in 10 Reform voters say they would consider the Conservatives."
The surveyors added: "Nevertheless, the top emotion in the event of a Rishi Sunak win would be “disappointed” with 9 per cent saying they would be “happy”.
"Even amongst 2019 Conservatives voters, 31 per cent disapprove of how Sunak is doing as Prime Minister. Keir Starmer’s positivity rate is 24 points higher than Sunak, with Starmer’s net positivity at +4.
TWO NEW POLLS... BUT WHAT DO THEY REALLY SHOW?
By Harry Cole, Political Editor
Three polls drop - two showing what we have known for months and one showing movement.
So take your pick, there’s something for everyone.
Labour will say onwards to victory, Tories will say their policy blitz on National Service and pensioners is showing signs of working.
So expect the JL Partners poll showing the Labour lead down to 12 to be pushed by war-weary Conservatives.
Given the morale of Tory MPs, some will want to grab onto any tiny signs things could yet be turned around.
It might seem bizarre to see politicians cling to a poll clearly showing their opponents winning, but the Tories don’t have much to cheer about right now.
Six weeks to go, but if there are the first signs of a tentative Tory recovery this could, and its a very big could, just be it…
"Labour continues to lead on issues such as the economy, and dealing with pay disputes and strike action–and a range of other issues.
"The NHS has seen a 6-point boost in salience amongst Labour voters– with 61 per cent of current Labour voters citing NHS improvement as a (top 3) important issue.
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"The Conservatives retain a lead on woke culture, military, Islamist extremism, migration, and small boats.
"The Tories have managed to almost draw even on reducing inflation, with 32 per cent naming the Conservatives as the best on this issue to Labour’s 33 per cent."
