We’re in a war right now, Britain’s former spy chief warns

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

Richard Dearlove, the former head of Britain’s MI6 spy agency, has never been one to pull his punches.

Just last year, he lambasted the “eminent members of our own elite” for “doing the work of our enemies for them” by “advocating for Huawei” and “refusing to publish serious scientific study that questions the Chinese narrative on the origins” of Covid-19. So, one wouldn’t expect him to handle Germany with kid gloves in the wake of the extraordinary Russian interception of what was meant to be a secret talk between the country’s air force chief and three subordinates.

Indeed, the former top spy was having none of it: “You know as well as I do that their record of security has been awful. It’s pretty shocking, actually,” Dearlove sniffed, speaking to POLITICO.

“Angela Merkel was notoriously casual, running Germany from a mobile phone. So, you could be sure that the Russians were listening to her — and probably still are. I think the problem with Germany is that it’s now temperamentally pacifist and has never really taken security seriously,” he added.

But Germany isn’t the only source of alarm for the 79-year-old Dearlove. He’s also worried about the overall state of Western unreadiness and unsteadiness.

When it comes to Germany, it’s not that “there aren’t people who take it seriously, but they are a tiny minority,” Dearlove said. He then went on to mention August Hanning, the former president of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the BND — and a personal friend — as one of the individuals who does. And Hanning himself has warned that Russia’s eavesdropping on the highly sensitive conference call is likely just “the tip of the iceberg.”

When he was MI6 chief, Dearlove was highly selective about what he would share with the BND, fearing it would leak to Russia all too easily. “There was certain highly sensitive stuff we wouldn’t have given them in a month of Sundays,” he said.

However, given Germany’s role in the West’s support of Ukraine, it might be more difficult for current MI6 chief Richard Moore to hold back on such intelligence. “The Germans will be very nervous, very uncertain how to play their cards, and will be desperate to get guidance,” Dearlove said.

Beyond Germany, though, Britain is also of special concern for the retired spymaster.

When it comes to the U.K., Dearlove identifies a gap between words and actions, between warnings — like Secretary of State for Defence Grant Shapps’ stating Britain needs to decide “whether to surrender to a sea of troubles or do everything we can to deter the danger”— and actually taking effective steps to be prepared. “If you stopped anyone in the street here in the U.K. and asked them whether they thought Britain is at war, they’d look at you as if you were mad,” Dearlove said. “But we are at war — we’re engaged in a gray war with Russia, and I am trying to remind people of that.”

Dearlove is scathing about the level of Britain’s defense spending, finding it simply insufficient to meet the threats posed by Russia and China. In last week’s spring budget, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced there would be no immediate new money for Britain’s armed forces, choosing to maintain defense expenditure at 2 percent of national income due to a fiscal squeeze, National Health Service needs and prioritized tax cuts.

However, according to Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal United Services Institute, in real terms, this represents a decrease and will likely mean cutting capabilities. “Everything else which is not part of the nuclear budget is going to be under severe pressure,” Chalmers said in a statement. “The government is going to have to make some unpleasant short-term decisions between different conventional equipment capabilities at a time when the Ukraine war is shining the spotlight on neglected capabilities in which our armed forces clearly need to invest more,” he added.

Dearlove echoes Chalmers on this. “We’ve got to make some tough choices, and I’m afraid the tough choices are in front of us right now. We should be spending at least 2.5 percent,” he said. “We urgently need to be building more ships. We need a much bigger navy. And we need more boots on the ground, for God’s sake,” he grumbled, noting the war in Ukraine had demonstrated the importance of combat manpower.

But the former MI6 head does draw some comfort from what Central European and Baltic nations are doing, praising Poland in particular for reaching a record-high level of defense spending within NATO. Poland is now spending nearly 4 percent of GDP on defense, and just this week, President Andrzej Duda warned that “Russia’s imperialistic ambitions and aggressive revisionism are pushing Moscow toward a direct confrontation with NATO, with the West and, ultimately, with the whole free world.”

With Russia shifting to a war economy and allocating nearly 30 percent of its annual budget to arm itself, it’s time for all NATO members to aim to spend 3 percent of their GDP on defense, Duda said.

Dearlove believes this increase in defense spending is also necessary “Trump-proofing.” “If [former U.S. President Donald] Trump comes to power, by the time he does, most NATO members will either be on track or above spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense,” he said. And that should help cope with having another term of the long-standing NATO critic in the White House.

“It’s quite different from the situation the first time round. I approve of what Trump did in calling out NATO in his first term, and particularly the Germans. If the Germans really start spending seriously on rearming — which they should be doing because of the size of their economy — that would be totally transformative,” he said.

Yet Dearlove, who ran MI6 between 1999 and 2004, is ambivalent about Trump, who complains that NATO’s European members aren’t paying their way, and has gone so far as to threaten pulling out of the partnership. Dearlove recently told British broadcaster Sky News that Trump’s reelection would be “problematic” due to his issues with NATO, and that if the former U.S. president acted hastily, it could cause a lot of damage, including to Britain’s security.

Although Dearlove did note that Trump seems to like Britain — unlike sitting President Joe Biden — and there may be a chance for the U.K. to secure a trade deal with him in the White House. “Trump emotionally quite likes the U.K. He likes it more than Biden does. I mean, Biden is an old-fashioned American Irish Catholic with all the prejudices that Irish Catholics have about England,” he said.

He also told POLITICO that “there’s quite a lot going on behind the scenes” in terms of “people talking to [Trump’s] national security people,” getting them to understand the importance of NATO. “I don’t think it’s a lost cause,” he added.

There’s one thing he does definitely like about Trump though — his unpredictability. “The principle of deterrence really is based on uncertainty and not [being able to] guess what your opponent is going to do. And I mean, in terms of guessing what Trump’s going to do, he has a deterrent effect because you can never be sure what he’s going to do next,” Dearlove said.

That can be of great benefit when dealing with foes, of course. The problem is when you treat friends in the same unpredictable way.