Denmark v Serbia: Euro 2024 – live

My former colleague and still friend (?) Dale Johnson is the guru of permutations and on the ESPN site, these are the scenarios for tonight’s teams. Remember, England are also playing Slovenia.

DENMARK:

Would qualify with a draw as they would be guaranteed to be, at worst, one of the best third-placed teams.

Win
If Denmark and England win, Denmark finish second.

If Denmark win and England draw, top spot is decided on goal difference, and the Danes would take first if they win by 2+ goals. If Denmark win by one goal it would come down to goals scored, and if that ends level (e.g. Denmark 1-0, England 0-0) it goes to Fairplay (England -1, Denmark -4). If that finishes level it’s European Qualifying Ranking (England 5th, Denmark 9th).

If Denmark and Slovenia win, they take the top two spots with first place decided on goal difference, which is now identical at 2-2. The team with the biggest win, or highest-scoring win of the same margin (e.g. 2-1 and 1-0), would finish top. If both win by the same scoreline it comes down to Fairplay (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4). If that stays level it’s European Qualifying Ranking (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th).

Draw
If Denmark draw and England win, Denmark finish second.

If Denmark and Slovenia draw, second would be decided on goals scored, so the team involved in the higher-scoring draw goes through. Ergo, Denmark 2-2 and Slovenia 1-1 sees Denmark finish second. If both draw by the same scoreline, second is decided on Fairplay points (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4). If that’s level it’s European Qualifying Ranking (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th).

If Denmark draw and Slovenia win, Denmark finish third and qualify.

Loss
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.

SERBIA:

Win
Will definitely qualify with a win over Denmark and will finish second as long as England win/draw.

If Serbia win and England lose, Serbia will finish third on head to head and the would qualify.

Draw
While two points is still mathematically possible as a best third place, it won’t be enough.

Loss
Cannot qualify.