Airbus has not taken full advantage of Boeing’s weakness
Boeing might have hoped that coughing up $1m for Donald Trump’s inauguration fund would ease relations with America’s incoming president. Yet “not happy” was the verdict he delivered on February 20th. His displeasure concerns a contract that the American aerospace giant signed during his first term to replace the twin planes that serve as Air Force One. The new jets, which should have arrived in time for Mr Trump’s second term, may no longer be delivered during his current stint in the White House, after difficulties with supply chains, the customisations required and a shortage of workers with the right security clearance. Mr Trump has said he is considering buying secondhand instead.
The only consolation for Boeing is that the president confirmed he “would not consider Airbus”. It is a rare victory for the American planemaker over its European archrival, which in recent years has raced ahead in production and deliveries of passenger jets, the main business for both firms. Even so, Airbus has not taken full advantage of Boeing’s troubles. That could leave the duopoly open to a new entrant.
Recent annual results from the planemakers confirmed Airbus’s ascendancy, with revenue of €69bn ($72bn) and an operating profit of €5.4bn last year, compared with $66bn of revenue and a $10.7bn loss for Boeing. Airbus delivered 766 planes in 2024; Boeing managed just 348.
The growing disparity between the two is largely a result of Boeing’s travails manufacturing commercial jets. Regulators have intervened to monitor quality control after a mid-flight blowout of a panel from a 737 MAX, Boeing’s flagship narrow-body jet, at the start of 2024. That incident followed the crashes of two such planes six years ago, linked to faulty flight-control software, which resulted in the grounding of the entire max fleet for 20 months, huge costs and a battered reputation. A strike by 33,000 workers at the end of last year that halted production of most planes for nearly eight weeks has only made matters worse for the planemaker.
Even if Boeing can restore its reputation and ramp up production, Airbus will maintain its lead in narrow-body jets for some time. The American firm hopes to raise the rate of 737 max production to around 38 planes a month later this year. Airbus already makes around 50 a month of its competing a320 family, and hopes to increase that to around 75 by 2027.
Yet both firms are weighed down by supply chains struggling to recover after severe cutbacks during the pandemic. And Airbus’s lead in narrow-body jets is not mirrored in wide-body ones. In 2024 Boeing delivered 83 twin-aisle planes, only six fewer than Airbus. The A220, a smaller passenger jet, remains unprofitable and A320 production hardly grew at all in 2024. Both firms may also be distracted by difficulties in other divisions. Boeing’s defence-and-space arm has lost money for three years. Airbus’s space business took charges of €1.3bn last year amid troubles at its satellite unit.
With the duopoly’s combined backlog now up to 14,000 orders, would-be competitors are looking to cut in. One is COMAC, China’s state-owned planemaker. Its C919 narrow-body jet will not constitute much of a threat for some time—just 30 deliveries are planned for 2025—but could eventually take market share in China and elsewhere. Rumours that Embraer, a Brazilian maker of smaller regional jets, is considering taking on the Airbus-Boeing duopoly are growing louder. But even if it does, it will be a while before Mr Trump can look elsewhere for a new ride. ■
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