Why Trump 2.0 ignoring Thailand would be a mistake
Concerns abound that the return of US President Donald Trump will create significant fissures in US-Thailand relations. But these fears may be overstated, given that Trump’s approach to Southeast Asia is informed by his focus on China.
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That said, Thailand will need to sustain its hedging strategy in the face of possible pressures from Trump, particularly in the fields of economics and trade. Under his predecessor Joe Biden, the US bolstered alliances and partnerships, supported global institutions, championed open markets and promoted liberal democracy.
Trump, by contrast, appears to view the world through the prism of transactional realism. This perspective prioritises state security in terms of optimal relative gains, neo-mercantilist dollar diplomacy, winning deals and decoupling from interdependence – especially with China. Essentially, it translates US security into maintaining trade and financial advantages over smaller countries while keeping China down.
Biden built multilateral linkages with Asean member states through initiatives such as the 2022 Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an environmentally and worker-friendly arrangement with 13 Asian nations, including Thailand, and a 30-year civil nuclear cooperation deal with Thailand. It is still unclear to what extent Trump might withdraw the US from these accords; an exit from the IPEF would echo his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. Thailand’s support for the IPEF stems from its desire to balance US influence against China’s, which has expanded its reach in Southeast Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra meets Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, in Beijing on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua
Based on Trump’s first term, trade is likely to be a central component of his policies towards Thailand this time around. In 2020, Trump placed Thailand on the US currency manipulation watch list and suspended the country’s Generalised System of Preference benefits – valued at US$1.3 billion – due to insufficient “market access” for US pork products, which Thailand had banned because of the chemicals injected into them. Since 2007, Thailand has also been on the US watch list for intellectual-property violations. Thailand’s trade surplus with the US stood at US$32.8 billion in the 12 months to October 2024.
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Thai officials have argued that this surplus is a result of US companies investing in Thailand and exporting goods back to the US. But the Trump administration might still increase import tariffs on Thailand, amid perceptions of Thailand’s high tariffs on US products and concerns that the country facilitates Chinese companies relocating to avoid US tariffs aimed at Beijing.
