How could Democrats replace Joe Biden as their candidate for president?
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’s performance in his televised debate with Donald Trump, on June 27th, could hardly have gone worse. With Democratic figures asking if a way can be found to replace him as the candidate for the election in November, what are the options? The main trouble is that he has comfortably secured enough delegates to win his party’s nomination. That means that only one person can change who will be the Democratic candidate to face Donald Trump: Mr Biden himself.
No one can force the president to step aside. If he were persuaded to withdraw (whether by his wife, or by a posse of Democratic grandees), candidates to replace him would need to woo the party’s patricians, ignoring the expressed will of the plebeians who voted in the primary races. The Democratic national convention in Chicago on August 19th-22nd would revert from its modern form—a four-day bout of pageantry—to its old-fashioned way of working: four days of back-room haggling. The party could well emerge deeply divided after such tumult. America has not witnessed such a contested convention since 1976, when Republican Party bosses plumped for Gerald Ford over Ronald Reagan.
Suppose Mr Biden soldiers on through the convention, securing the nomination despite the deepening misgivings about him, but then fell ill and was unable to contest the election. The Democratic National Committee, which consists of a few hundred party operatives, would then decide whom to place at the top of the ticket. Such a meeting has been required only once before, in 1972, when the Democrats’ vice-presidential candidate, Thomas Eagleton, had to withdraw after revelations that he had suffered from depression and received electroshock therapy. It is likely that the crown would pass in this instance to the vice-president, Kamala Harris.
Mr Biden appears loyal to her as his running-mate, and his blessing for any replacement for him would count for a lot. Yet her shakiness as a candidate is thought to be one of the reasons Mr Biden has been reluctant to bow out. Ms Harris, who ran a disastrous campaign for the presidency in 2020, would almost certainly attract challengers, especially if Mr Biden were to withdraw his candidacy before the convention. Only a third of Americans think she would beat Mr Trump, according to a poll in May 2024 for Politico by Morning Consult. Although it would be awkward in an identity-conscious party to attempt to bypass the first black and the first female vice-president, some rivals would probably try.
Who might they be? The first place to look is the pool of Democratic governors. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, would plainly love to be president, and has built a formidable political machine. The governor of Illinois, J.B. Pritzker, is similarly ambitious, and has an inherited fortune worth billions to help in any campaign. The moderate governors whom many Democrats see as best-placed to take on Mr Trump—such as Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan—might struggle to muster the money and the organisation to mount an effective campaign. Other potential contenders might be senior figures from the Biden administration. The most impressive political talents in his cabinet include Pete Buttigieg, the secretary of transportation, and Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce. Raphael Warnock, the senator for Georgia, is charismatic, a gifted speaker and represents a swing state.
Whether it happens before or (especially) after the convention, putting in place a substitute for Mr Biden would be messy and contentious. Such a rowdy spectacle is hardly ideal for Democrats heading into a vital election. But it would be one way to achieve what has proved remarkably difficult in recent years: sucking attention away from Mr Trump. ■