Turkey’s President Erdogan faces a new challenge from Islamists

Editor’s note: On May 3rd Turkey suspended all trade with Israel because of the “worsening humanitarian tragedy” in the Gaza Strip.

THE CLAIM that Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been too soft on Israel would surprise most observers. He is an outspoken defender of the Palestinians, and specifically of Hamas. Since the war in Gaza began seven months ago he has repeatedly accused Israel of genocide and called Binyamin Netanyahu, the country’s prime minister, a “butcher” and a war criminal. Some of Hamas’s leaders have found a haven in Turkey.

But for many religious hardliners, this is not enough. For months New Welfare, an increasingly popular Islamist party, has been giving Mr Erdogan grief. The party wants Mr Erdogan to freeze trade with Israel, close down a NATO radar station and deny American troops access to another NATO base in central Turkey.

Turkey’s strongman recently decided to meet the radicals halfway. On April 9th his government announced that it would suspend the sale of dozens of products to Israel, especially those used for construction and military purposes. Two weeks later in Istanbul Mr Erdogan rolled out the red carpet for a visit by Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader.

This came too late to prevent Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party from losing at least a million votes to New Welfare in local elections on March 31st. That election produced two main winners. One was the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which beat AK in the country’s big cities and, even more unexpectedly, in the nationwide vote. The other was New Welfare, which earned 6.2% of the vote, behind only CHP and AK.

For two decades Mr Erdogan and AK have enjoyed a near-monopoly over Turkey’s Islamist vote. New Welfare’s success has ended that. The party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Mr Erdogan’s late mentor, had joined the president’s governing coalition in 2023, but went its own way in the local elections after accusing AK of ignoring its demands. These include lowering interest rates, outlawing adultery and scrapping rules on gender equality.

The war in Gaza was another reason for the split, and for New Welfare’s strong showing. “People expected more from a government and a president who had done so much for Palestine,” says Mehmet Fatih Oztek, a member of New Welfare’s executive committee. “And this had serious costs for AK at the polls.”

Tempted as he might be to get even tougher on Israel, Mr Erdogan can go only so far without sabotaging Turkey’s improving relations with America. The relationship is hardly thriving, but it has been getting better. Earlier this year Mr Erdogan approved Sweden’s accession to NATO after months of stonewalling, opening the way for America to sell F-16 fighters and upgrade kits to Turkey. In February the Pentagon announced a partnership with a Turkish defence company to produce 155mm shells, presumably destined for Ukraine, out of a plant in Texas.

But there are signs Mr Erdogan may be willing to pay that price. In late April, officials in Ankara revealed that Turkey’s president had postponed a trip to the White House scheduled for May 9th, which would have been his first since Joe Biden took office. Mr Erdogan may have decided that a bit of friction with America is what he needs to placate Islamists at home. ■

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