Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war
To read more of The Economist’s data journalism visit our Graphic detail page.
RUSSIAN SOLDIERS have captured some 645 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in the past 30 days, according to our daily war tracker. As their advance grinds on, war fatigue among Ukrainians is deepening. Surveys published on November 19th and 20th by Gallup, a pollster, show that 52% of Ukrainians now support negotiating an end to the war as soon as possible, a sharp rise from just 27% a year ago. The share of those determined to fight “until victory” has dropped from 63% in 2023 to 38%. Even Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has shifted tone: he recently expressed hope for a diplomatic resolution next year. That reflects a change in rhetoric since the re-election of Donald Trump in America, who has promised to bring the war to an end within 24 hours.
The surveys, conducted in August and October 2024, show that support for continued resistance against Russia has fallen in every part of Ukraine (see maps). In Kyiv, the capital, Gallup data show that support has dropped by 39 percentage points since 2022; in eastern regions close to the front line the figure is even starker: just 27% of respondents now favour pressing on, compared with 63% who want the war to end. Roughly half of those who favour talks are open to territorial concessions—Russia has seized 19% of Ukraine’s land since 2014. Less than 40% of them oppose ceding any land. (The pollsters did not ask which areas or how much land should be given up.)
What explains this fatigue? The immense human and economic toll of the war no doubt weighs heavily on Ukrainians. But growing disillusionment with the West, and what support Ukraine can expect, might also play a role. The Gallup data show that the share of Ukrainians who think their country will join NATO within the next decade dropped from 69% in 2023 to 51% in 2024. Mr Zelensky has repeatedly called for an immediate invitation to the military alliance. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has declared that to be a red line for Russia—and so far some NATO members, including America and Germany, have been reluctant to test it.
Support for America’s leadership among Ukrainians has also eroded as its military aid has become entangled in America’s domestic politics. (Gallup conducted its survey before President Joe Biden eased restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American weapons, including long-range ATACMS missiles.)
Mr Trump’s return to the White House in January will probably lead to cuts to aid and his administration might pressure Ukraine into accepting a peace deal. The polling by Gallup suggests that a growing number of Ukrainians have come to accept that. Whether Mr Putin agrees to any deal, of course, is another matter.