America’s strikes on the Houthis could whip up a regional tempest
America and its allies have repeatedly gone after the Houthis, Yemeni rebels backed by Iran, since they started attacking ships in the Red Sea in October 2023. But the strikes launched by America on March 15th were the first under Donald Trump. The blasts killed over 50 people and targeted the group’s leaders, including, according to an Arabic satellite network, some of Iran’s operatives. After Israel’s hobbling of Hizbullah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, and the toppling of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, America’s generals seemed confident another member of Iran’s “axis of resistance” would be next.
America has three main aims with these attacks. First, it wants to stop the Houthis’ strikes on ships in the Red Sea; they have hit more than 130 vessels in protest against Israel’s war in and blockade of Gaza. They paused after a truce was signed in January. But when Israel recently blocked aid into Gaza and shut off its electricity, they threatened to start again. In response, Mr Trump ordered pre-emptive strikes.
Second, the president reckons he can maximise pressure on Iran’s ayatollahs by weakening another of their satellites, forcing them to accept a deal to curb their nuclear programme. Third, his admirals want to show off their expensive aircraft carriers ahead of a defence-spending review. “The navy needs its pride restored,” says David Des Roches, a military analyst in Washington “They can’t be seen to be held to a draw by a gang of shoeless Houthis.”
Yet the attacks on the Houthis by America and its allies in the past year have been strikingly ineffective. The Houthis still command a territory some 30 times larger than the one run by Hizbullah. They rule 25m people, a good 15 times as many as the Lebanese militia did, and their fans are far more numerous. Foreigners fighting against Yemenis have a history of coming unstuck. “Those who go do not come back,” the Turks still sing, mourning four centuries of losses in Yemen.
Like Hizbullah, the Houthis are led by a cleric, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi. But unlike Hizbullah, they also run a de facto government that would endure even if Mr Houthi were killed. After a decade in power, many Yemenis have been re-educated in “culture camps” to see the world the Houthis’ way. America’s bombs seem to confirm what they are taught: the infidel is killing Muslims again. Supporters packed the streets to cheer Mr Houthi’s defiance when, in a video-address after America’s strikes, he promised to resume his attacks on ships.
That defiance is also raising the Houthis’ regional stock. Their leader’s castigation of Arab leaders as mercenaries for abandoning Palestinians to Israel’s destruction resonates from Algeria to Afghanistan. In neighbouring Saudi Arabia, with its large Shia minority, he is gaining some solid support. Two decades of high-stakes fighting—first against Yemen’s government, then the Saudis and Emiratis, and most recently America and Israel—have elevated them from ragtag militia into regional power. “The Houthis are the only member of Iran’s axis to have seen their position strengthened over the last year,” says Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemeni analyst at Chatham House, a British think-tank.
The tempest may worsen. The Houthis will continue to unleash their missiles and drones (on March 20th they fired a missile at Tel Aviv which was intercepted before it reached Israel). Some may yet dent an aircraft carrier—and America’s reputation, Mr Des Roches cautions. The Biden administration looked for local proxies to co-operate with, but deemed the Houthis’ many rivals in Yemen too corrupt and inept to risk arming. Some might still try to show willing, reigniting Yemen’s civil war.
Mr Trump is expanding his threats, promising to hold Iran to account for the Houthis’ attacks and warning them of “dire” consequences. Yet his approach is only hardening the mullahs’ hearts. They may seize the chance to rally their embittered people against a common enemy and go for confrontation and a nuclear bomb. Israel might then join the fray. The Houthis would come to their patron’s aid and fire again at Gulf cities and oil terminals. It is all too easy to imagine the worst. ■
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