Netanyahu-Gallant rivalry complicates Israeli response to Iran attack

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have met or spoken more than 80 times over the last year, but their latest consultation was scheduled at a particularly delicate moment, as the region braced for Israel to respond to Tehran’s Oct. 1 missile attack, possibly before the Yom Kippur holiday begins Friday.

Now, divisions inside the Israeli government and across the Atlantic are converging, with Netanyahu apparently incensed over his lack of direct contact with President Joe Biden and a cabinet rivalry overshadowing Israel’s security deliberations.

“Netanyahu is clearly trying to assert control and weaken Gallant to the point where it could weaken the relationship with the United States,” said Chuck Freilich, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council and senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Gallant hails from Netanyahu’s own Likud party, but the two have found themselves frequently at odds as Israel’s war has expanded from Gaza to Yemen to Lebanon and now, possibly, to Iran.

The two have split publicly on a series of key strategic decisions, including the timing of a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas and a potential role for the Palestinian Authority in the future governance of Gaza. But Gallant is also seen as a future rival for party leadership, which political observers said is likely to have played a role in the last-minute grounding of his flight to Washington.

Netanyahu, who has an increasingly fractured relationship with Biden and, until Wednesday, hadn’t spoken with him in almost two months, was not pleased with Gallant’s solo trip — believing the White House was attempting to go around him and discuss the response to Iran directly with his defense minister, according to two Israeli officials familiar with the situation. Like others in this story, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

“The prevailing assessment is that Netanyahu is afraid that Biden might give Gallant credit, and wants to show his political base within the Likud that he is keeping Gallant from coordinating with the Americans,” Itamar Eichner, a military correspondent for the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote Wednesday.

Israel is preparing to hit back at Tehran for last week’s barrage of almost 200 ballistic missiles, killing a Palestinian in the West Bank and hitting at least two military bases.

Israeli hawks are pushing for a massive response, including possible strikes on Iran’s nuclear research sites or oil production facilities. Moderates, and the Biden administration, are lobbying for a more measured retaliation, hoping to avoid an all-out regional war.

The unexpected order to block Tuesday’s flight came directly from Netanyahu, an Israeli official said, and would not be lifted until his two conditions had been met: that Netanyahu and Biden talk by phone, and that the Israeli security cabinet vote to approve a military strike on Iran.

The prime minister has been expecting a one-on-one call with Biden for days, the official said, and on Wednesday the two leaders finally spoke, according to a statement from the prime minister’s office.

The call had been on Biden’s schedule for several days, said a person familiar with his schedule. Pentagon officials said Gallant’s meeting with Austin could still occur later this week.

“Netanyahu is saying, ‘If I can’t talk to Biden, I will not allow my defense minister to do it,’” said Yossi Melman, a longtime intelligence columnist for the Haaretz newspaper. “I’m sure that Gallant will eventually go to Washington ... but the relations are awful.”

Biden’s team denied Tuesday that the president was avoiding a conversation with Netanyahu. But his irritation with the prime minister is no secret, following months in which Israel has largely brushed aside U.S. efforts to broker a cease-fire in Gaza and has carried out major strikes or operations in Lebanon, Syria and Tehran without warning American officials.

“No administration has helped Israel more than I have,” Biden told reporters Friday. “None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that,” he added, using Netanyahu’s nickname.

Washington has urged Israel not to target Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities. That was expected to be part of discussions Wednesday with Gallant, who has formed a close working relationship with Austin. They talk so often that it’s become a common joke in Israeli security circles that Gallant gets along better with Austin than he does with Netanyahu.

Gallant’s and Netanyahu’s offices declined to comment.

The bad blood between the two goes back at least to March. Netanyahu attempted to fire Gallant when he raised concerns about the government’s campaign to overhaul Israel’s judicial system, citing the turmoil it was creating in the military. The prime minister was forced to back down in the face of massive street protests, and the two have served together, uneasily, ever since.

Gallant has not publicly staked out his views on the scope of a potential Iran strike, but he has built a reputation as one of the only members of the security cabinet willing to publicly challenge the prime minister.

“Gallant is one of the few moderate voices,” said Melman, who wrote a book about Iran’s nuclear program. “You can assume that he is very attentive to the American requests.”

In April, after a previous missile and drone attack by Iran that was largely intercepted, Israel acceded to U.S. advice to “take the win” — carrying out a largely symbolic strike that did limited damage to an Iranian air defense unit.

In recent months, Israel has inflicted a series of heavy blows on Hezbollah, Iran’s largest and most strategically significant armed proxy. Israel blew up the group’s electronic devices in mid-September; less than two weeks later, it assassinated Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. Last week, Israeli troops invaded southern Lebanon for the first time since 2006.

Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, described the country’s latest missile attack as an attempt “to restore balance and deterrence.” But it could just as easily pull Tehran into the kind of direct confrontation that analysts say it has long sought to avoid.

As Israel mulls how to retaliate, a range of options is on the table, each fraught with complications.

Hitting Iranian oil fields could send global energy prices soaring on the eve of the U.S. election and spark retaliatory attacks from other Iran-backed groups on oil installations operated by American allies in the Persian Gulf.

It is unclear how much Israel could do on its own to meaningfully damage Iran’s nuclear program, since most of the infrastructure was moved dozens of meters underground after 2021, when Israel purportedly targeted the Natanz nuclear compound near Isfahan, according to Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

“Big explosions look good on television,” said Sabti. “But it is not clear that it would send the necessary message.”

But it remains a popular option for Israeli hard-liners, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett.

“If not now, when?” Bennett said Tuesday on X. “NOW is the time to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities and regime.”

Freilich, the former national security official, said the desire to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat is widespread in Israeli security circles. But he and other military experts agreed the country would need the United States — and it would be in Israel’s interest to wait until Washington is more open to helping.

“I think Israel has to keep a lid on things until after the U.S. election,” Freilich said. “And then there is the potential to hit the nuclear sites.”

Rubin reported from Tel Aviv. Karen DeYoung in Washington contributed to this report.