Khartoum changes hands, marking a new phase in Sudan’s civil war
Nearly two years after being forced to fall back to Port Sudan on the coast, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan are triumphantly back in charge of Khartoum, the capital. They still face resistance in areas south of the city and in the district of Omdurman on the west bank of the Nile. But the city’s recapture marks a turning point in a war that has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced 12m and caused one of the world’s worst famines for decades. The question now is whether the SAF halts its advance or pushes westward (see map).
That will depend partly on pressure from the general’s allies. The SAF has advanced on the battlefield in recent months largely thanks to a broad and diverse coalition assembled since the early months of the war, when it lost swathes of the country, including most of Khartoum, to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a descendant of the Janjaweed, an ethnically Arab militia that terrorised the vast western region of Darfur for two decades. The RSF is commanded by Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, who is apparently determined to fight on.
On the SAF’s side are foreign backers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and neighbouring Egypt, which has reportedly provided air support. Looser associates include Russia, Turkey and Iran, which have sold the army weapons and drones. Some of those countries may now press General Burhan, who has doggedly refused peace talks, to negotiate with the RSF. To sweeten the deal, outsiders may offer to recognise an SAF-led government in Khartoum and help pay to rebuild the battered city.
Yet competing interests among the army’s domestic allies could scupper any such deal. The SAF has enlisted voluntary local defence units, composed of civilians enraged by the RSF’s looting and terrorising of populations under its control, and militias from Darfur. It has also fought alongside jihadist brigades with links to the Islamist government of Omar al-Bashir that was ousted in 2019. Faced with the dilemma of whether to continue the fight westwards towards the RSF’s base in Darfur, or to consolidate in Khartoum, this shaky alliance could well splinter.
Prominent voices are urging it to push on. “Darfur is part of Sudan,” says Amjed Farid, a former government official. “The SAF should not surrender it to the RSF.” Many Darfuris, not least the ethnic African groups who have suffered atrocities including possible genocide at the hands of the RSF, probably feel the same.
But such a push could easily end badly. The army has made the biggest recent gains in its traditional strongholds in central Sudan. A ground offensive in Darfur would entail battles on the RSF’s home turf and stretched supply lines. As a commander during the first Darfur war, in the 2000s, General Burhan got bogged down in the region. Even with the support of local allies his forces could find themselves in a quagmire again. “The Sudanese Armed Forces have never really won in Darfur,” says Kholood Khair of Confluence Advisory, a Sudanese think-tank.
Still, for the moment there is little talk of a ceasefire or negotiations, at least in public. The SAF continues to bomb civilians: a strike on a market in Darfur on March 24th reportedly killed at least 54 people and injured dozens more. In Khartoum there are alarming reports of lawlessness. Gruesome videos have circulated in recent days appearing to show beheadings of suspected RSF collaborators by groups allied to the army.
There are equally few signs that the RSF, despite its defeat in Khartoum and its recent insistence that it wished to begin dialogue, is ready to sue for peace. In February it announced the formation of a parallel government in the areas under its control. Its chief foreign supporter, the United Arab Emirates, does not appear to have stopped sending it weapons. Almost all of Sudan’s immediate neighbours, except Egypt and Eritrea, now fall within the Emiratis’ sphere of influence. This means the RSF should be able to continue resupplying itself. “I’d be surprised if the RSF is going to take this one lying down,” says Alex Rondos, a former EU special representative to the Horn of Africa.
In Khartoum and its surroundings the SAF’s victory should at least make it easier for aid agencies to deliver food and other emergency supplies. That could stave off famine, temporarily reducing the misery for Sudanese in these areas. “But does it actually bring the war closer to the end?” asks Payton Knopf, a former American diplomat. “Probably not.” ■
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