Britain and US race to expand Pacific defense pact before election turmoil

LONDON — The U.K., U.S. and Australia are rushing to expand their trilateral AUKUS defense partnership to further allied nations before potentially tumultuous elections in all three countries over the next 14 months.

One senior diplomat involved in the talks told POLITICO that Japan and Canada are in line to join the so-called pillar 2 section of the AUKUS agreement, which will see participants sign up to extensive military technology collaboration, by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

It comes amid fears in Washington, London and Canberra that Donald Trump could wind back or scrap the AUKUS deal if he wins the November presidential election.

The AUKUS security agreement was first announced in September 2021. Its first part, pillar 1 involves the U.S. and U.K. helping Australia build nuclear-powered submarines.

Pillar 2 of the agreement allows the three nations to agree on deals to develop advanced military technology in areas such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and quantum technologies. 

It was always envisioned that pillar 2 could be expanded to further U.S. allies, with Japan, Canada, New Zealand and South Korea among those expressing interest in joining.

A second diplomat involved in the talks said U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration was now “pushing really hard to get some things on AUKUS pillar 2 done now, before the U.S. election” in November, which may see Trump retake the White House.

Race to beat a Trump return

A White House official told POLITICO that "the president and his partners have been clear that as our work progresses on pillar 2 we would look for opportunities to engage other allies and close partners."

While he has yet to speak in public about the AUKUS deal, Trump has doubled-down on his America First rhetoric during the campaign and may adopt a more isolationist foreign policy position.

The U.K. is due to hold its own general election before the end of this year, while Australia is set to go to the polls by May 2025.

The first diplomat quoted in this piece said the return of “American isolationism is a risk to the Indo-Pacific” and that there will be a moment, if Trump wins, where Western leaders will phone each other up and ask: “What the fuck are we going to do now?”

That means, they suggested, rushing to sign new partners up to AUKUS now while the White House is still occupied by an administration that favors the pact.

“If pillar 2 fails then AUKUS fails, because we could have just had a submarine deal — albeit a very big submarine deal,” they said.

“We’re very confident of getting some of the pillar 2 deals done by the end of this year.”

An official working at the U.K. Ministry of Defense agreed there was "impetus to get pillar 2 done sooner rather than later" and that there are "ongoing discussions around what pillar 2 will look like."

David Cameron heads to Australia

They emphasized that no decisions over Japan and South Korea joining the pact had been made. New Zealand's defense minister Judith Collins recently said that there was "no guarantee" her country will be invited to AUKUS pillar 2.

Marion Messmer, a security expert at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “It makes sense to expand pillar 2, because it’s something that a lot of other countries are interested in and Japan in particular makes a lot of sense given its Pacific location.”

"It could be a great idea — we've seen the technology ambitions the U.K. has set out for itself and I think what I would like to see is, for example, countries figuring out what they might be particularly good at and exchange on that basis," she said.

U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron and U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps travel to Australia this week to hold meetings with their Australian counterparts.

The pair will also meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is expected to provide a public update on the core submarine project amid fears in Canberra that America's decision to scale down submarine production could put the AUKUS deal in jeopardy.

Messmer warned that a second Trump presidency is a “big risk” to the future of the entire AUKUS deal, as the U.S. has to loan Australia several submarines as a part of the deal while new ones are being built.

“If Trump is unwilling to deliver because they don’t want to spare the subs or don’t want to anger China that could definitely jeopardise the Aukus agreement,” she said.

“That prospect is frightening officials in Australia now.”

Making progress

A U.K. Ministry of Defense spokesperson said:“We continue to seek opportunities to engage allies and close partners as work on AUKUS Pillar 2 progresses.

“Any decisions on bringing other states into specific projects within AUKUS’ Advanced Capability work would be made trilaterally and announced at an appropriate time.”

Paul McLeary contributed reporting from Washington D.C.