Violence mars Mexicans’ biggest elections ever
ON MAY 29TH, the day that campaigning for the election on June 2nd closed, a mayoral candidate was shot dead in Guerrero, a state south-west of Mexico City. Nearly 40 candidates have been assassinated in these elections; include killings of politicians’ family members and campaign teams and the number rises.
Violence has marred these historic elections. An unprecedented 100m people, including more first-time voters than ever before, are eligible to cast their ballot tomorrow. They will elect the first female head of state—in all likelihood Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party, who has long led the polls by around 20 points. Mexico’s biggest-ever elections will also elect 628 members of congress, nine governors and around 19,000 local posts.
The campaign has been disappointingly short on substantive debate. It has largely revolved around President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Ms Sheinbaum, his protegée, promises continuity. Closing her campaign in the Zócalo, Mexico City’s main square, she hailed the president’s “fourth transformation” and promised to build “the second storey”. Xóchitl Gálvez, who leads a coalition of older parties, has campaigned on clearing up the mess caused by Mr López Obrador’s six years in office, especially insecurity and democratic decline.
On paper the “fourth transformation” put the poor first, rid Mexico of corruption and insecurity. Poverty has indeed fallen somewhat under Mr López Obrador thanks to increased cash transfers to the poor and a higher minimum wage. But he has failed to deal with corruption—indeed he has made it worse by handing more money and power to the armed forces, who do not have to be transparent. His hands-off security approach has let gangs sprawl. He has supported production and combustion of fossil fuels by state-owned companies, and has damaged basic services such as healthcare and education. He has attacked or weakened institutions ranging from the electoral authority to the Supreme Court.
This contrast between Mr López Obrador’s promises and his results leaves many Mexicans feeling they have nowhere else to turn. His election in 2018 was decisive in Mexican history. Mexicans voted for him—having rejected him twice before—because they had become fed up with a ruling class who were seen as out of touch and corrupt. Mr López Obrador offered a folksy contrast, constantly travelling around Mexico and talking with ordinary people.
Members of the old-school opposition parties have yet to really grapple with Mexicans’ hatred of them. That has hurt Ms Gálvez’ chances. She has more of the president’s sort of charisma than Ms Sheinbaum, who comes across as professorial and ill-at-ease. Mexico is yet to alight on an alternative form of politics that has broad appeal. The closest it has to that is Jorge Álvarez Máynez of Citizens’ Movement, a relatively young, progressive party. He is polling in single digits.
Ms Sheinbaum’s opacity and contradictory statements have allowed voters to see what they want to see in her. The president’s fans point to her political career at his side. Those keen for change see great differences between her, a 61-year-old urban climate scientist and the 70–year-old president, from the south of the country; they like her promise to clean up Mexico’s energy industry. Her time as mayor of Mexico City, from 2018 to last year, suggests she is both a nationalist like her mentor, but perhaps has a greater capacity for pragmatism.
The ruling Morena party looks likely to win the presidency, a simple majority in congress and the majority of the governorships up for grabs. Its position should become clear late on Sunday night, when the National Electoral Commission starts announcing preliminary results. ■
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