President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is throttling Turkey’s democracy
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been running Turkey for 22 years, and has spent much of that time dismantling the foundations of its democracy. Since changing the constitution in 2017, Turkey’s president has ruled with few checks on his authority. His government controls the courts, the security apparatus and almost all the media. Yet until last week Turkey remained what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian regime: a flawed multiparty democracy where the opposition can, in theory, win elections, and often does, at least at the local level. Since the arrest on March 19th of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and Mr Erdogan’s strongest rival, that may no longer apply.
Some have thought Mr Erdogan an aspiring dictator ever since the 1990s, when as an Islamist he campaigned against Turkey’s secularism, which was then strictly enforced. Though he once called democracy a tram you get off when you reach your stop, his first years in power were reassuring. But later he cracked down on civil-society organisations and used trumped-up prosecutions to attack opponents in the army and the courts. Mr Erdogan crushed Kurdish groups in a military campaign in 2015 and jailed Kurdish leaders. The next year, after foiling a coup attempt, he imprisoned tens of thousands of people, only some of whom had played a part in the putsch, and muzzled the media. Still, the Turkish president consistently beat the opposition in elections that were largely free, if far from fair.
Mr Imamoglu’s arrest marks a turning point. For months the charismatic mayor has led Mr Erdogan in opinion polls for the next presidential election, due in 2028 or before. Last year his Republican People’s Party (CHP) shocked Mr Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party by beating it in local elections. Years of economic mismanagement and corruption scandals have eroded Mr Erdogan’s popularity. Mr Imamoglu’s emergence as the CHP’s leader promised a chance of a democratic transfer of power. But his imprisonment, on charges of corruption that experts consider baseless, suggests that Turkey’s president would rather end democracy than risk losing.
Mr Erdogan seems to have picked this moment partly because of a favourable international climate. The world’s usual defenders of democracy are absent. Donald Trump has shown little interest in other countries’ democratic standards. Europe is preoccupied by the war in Ukraine and its difficulties with Mr Trump. Indeed, the Europeans need Turkey’s help and are courting Mr Erdogan to supply troops for a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine. As America steps back from Europe, Turkey’s army, the second-largest in NATO, is more vital than ever. And ever since the migrant crisis of 2015-16, the European Union has relied on Turkey to keep waves of refugees away from its borders.
The European Commission’s response to Mr Imamoglu’s arrest was meek, merely urging Turkey to “uphold democratic values”, though statements from France and Germany were tougher. In fact, Europe could do more than it has. Greece and Bulgaria have toughened their borders, meaning that Turkey can no longer so easily threaten to flood the EU with migrants. Mr Erdogan still appears to value Turkey’s long-dormant candidacy for EU membership; earlier this month he insisted it move forward. He has also wanted to broaden his country’s customs union with the EU; the bloc should keep that on hold. Letting Turkish firms take part in the EU’s €150bn ($162bn) ReArm Europe programme would be another incentive.
Yet outside powers cannot stop Mr Erdogan from turning Turkey into an autocracy. Only its citizens can do that. Some of them may be alarmed by his growing authoritarianism, others by the worsening prospects for the economy as investors lose confidence that reformers will be able make their voices heard. The hundreds of thousands braving police batons and water cannons to protest against Mr Imamoglu’s arrest have the democratic world’s sympathy. Alas, they will not get much else. ■