Why the outcome of the Rwanda bill matters for Sunak – and the Conservatives

A revolt by 29 Conservative MPs could be enough to defeat the government’s Rwanda bill at its first Commons hurdle – something that has not happened to a piece of government legislation since 1986.

The legislation was designed to overcome concerns raised by the supreme court, which ruled last month that the previous policy for deporting people to Rwanda violated domestic and international law.

So what would happen next for:

… the legislation itself?
A bill that is defeated at a second reading cannot be reintroduced during the same parliamentary session, placing the government’s hopes of being able to circumvent court challenges to its Rwanda policy in mortal danger.

So rare is defeat at a second reading that, when it happened in 1986 to Margaret Thatcher’s attempt to liberalise Sunday trading, it was the only time a government with a working majority lost in those circumstances in the 20th century.

Even then, Thatcher’s shops bill was not as integral to government policy as Sunak’s Rwanda legislation.

Aside from some exceptions, the government would need to come up with something substantively different, according to Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

One question would be whether a redrawn bill of the sort that would satisfy Tory factions would be seen as different enough, he added.

… Sunak’s leadership?
The prime minister’s authority as Conservative leader would be shot to pieces and there would be even louder calls for a leadership contest from within his ranks.

Would-be challengers ranging from Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, recent departees from the Home Office, are already waiting and sniping from outside of cabinet.

More immediately, Sunak would effectively resemble Theresa May during the period when she was trying and failing to push through her Brexit plans. More no-confidence letters on top of the only publicly known one, from Andrea Jenkyns, would go in.

He would face a no-confidence vote if the number of letters from Tory MPs was to reach the 15% required. Of course, Sunak could choose to call a general election and ask the public to back his Rwanda plans, but would be fighting on less than ideal ground.

… the Tory party’s approach to immigration?
Rejection would leave a central plank of Rishi Sunak’s re-election platform in tatters, potentially rendering him unable to fulfil his pledge to “stop the boats”.

The bill, which would deem Rwanda safe in British law, was itself not guaranteed to shut down all legal challenges by anyone seeking to block a deportation to the central African country.

Now, government hopes of circumventing any court challenges after the flagship Rwanda plan was last month struck down as unlawful by the supreme court would be considerably narrowed.

Without the Rwanda deportation plan the Conservatives would be unable to point to a “deterrent”, which they claim the bill would provide as part of their plan to convince voters they were offering a credible pathway to halting small boat crossings of the Channel.

Worse still, there would be nothing to show after the initial costs of the scheme rose from £140m to £290m, even before the Home Office was this week ordered by a parliamentary committee to disclose the full bill.