Narendra Modi ramps up the Muslim-baiting
THE Themes used by the speaker were the usual Hindu-nationalist fare. The opposition Congress Party was planning to take away Indians’ wealth, including women’s mangalsutras (Hindu bridal ornaments), and give it to “infiltrators” who “have more children”. The identity of the fecund intruders was left in no doubt: after all, the speaker alleged, Congress had argued in the past that Muslims should have the first claim to the country’s resources.
What was more unusual was the speaker’s identity: Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, addressing an election rally in the northern state of Rajasthan last month. Mr Modi’s lieutenants in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have never shied away from scapegoating India’s 200m Muslims to rally their Hindu base, something he has never condemned. Yet the prime minister himself has in recent years been careful to avoid explicit Muslim-baiting.
Mr Modi’s slogan, “sabka saath, sabka vikas”, promises “prosperity for all”. Even during the consecration in January of a controversial new Hindu temple in the northern city of Ayodhya, which was built on the ruins of a mosque demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992, he sought to portray the building as a symbol of national unity and social harmony.
Mr Modi and the BJP are still widely expected to win a third term in India’s general election, which ends on June 4th. Yet halfway through the polls, their pitch has shifted. Mr Modi usually projects an image of a statesmanlike father of the nation who has brought economic success at home and growing clout abroad, leaving a weak and divided opposition in the dust. That has given way to something more worrying.
The BJP and the prime minister have turbocharged their Islamophobia. The party released explicitly anti-Muslim videos based on Mr Modi’s Rajasthan remarks on Instagram and X. (The platforms eventually took them down for violating hate-speech rules.) Meanwhile Mr Modi, though he said this week that he did not mean Muslims when he talked about “infiltrators”, has continued to revisit the theme. Last week he suggested Congress wanted Muslims to engage in what he called “vote jihad” (voting while Muslim) and was planning to lock up the grand new temple in Ayodhya that Mr Modi personally consecrated in fulfilment of a long-standing BJP promise.
In one telling, the change in tack is a sign of confidence. The election commission, the constitutional body charged with ensuring the polls are free and fair, has shown little inclination to rap Mr Modi or the BJP on the knuckles. The commission took four days to issue a notice to the BJP over the prime minister’s remarks in Rajasthan. The notice was not addressed to Mr Modi and was accompanied by a near-identical one to Congress. The commission has been slow to respond to allegations of voter suppression or intimidation of candidates in the election, including in Gujarat, Mr Modi’s home state. Combined with the silence of India’s international partners on threats to the country’s democracy, this may have convinced Mr Modi that he had little to lose from boosting the rhetoric.
Perhaps. Yet there is also the possibility that Mr Modi and the BJP are not as certain of the result as they would like to be. The BJP swept into power on a wave of anti-corruption sentiment in 2014 and was buoyed in 2019 by an air strike inside Pakistani territory following the killing of 46 Indian police officers in a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. This time there has been no single issue for supporters to rally around. That may be one reason why turnout has so far been several percentage points below what it was in 2019.
Voters whom Banyan met last month in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, a BJP stronghold, were quick to express their support for Mr Modi. Yet they were equally quick to complain about inflation, corruption, a lack of jobs and the slow pace of development. Young people are particularly disillusioned, though they do not blame Mr Modi. He may be trying to rally a lacklustre base against a common enemy.
That is a risky strategy. If the BJP wins a large majority, the opposition may question the legitimacy of the result by pointing to allegations of irregularities and the election commission’s relative inaction. But if the BJP wins a smaller majority or fails to win one at all, it may become even more aggressive. In the worst case, that risks a violent escalation in the streets. None of this bodes well for the state of Indian democracy. ■
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