European countries are banding together on missile defence

Europe’s air defences are in a bad state. Its armies have not thought seriously about defending their own skies for some time. But as Russian missiles and drones pound Ukrainian cities, Europe is scrambling to retool. The continent’s missile defences are stretched thin; most countries lack enough interceptors to thwart massed attacks. Many have donated precious batteries to Ukraine.

Germany, usually a defence laggard, is leading efforts to rearm. In August 2022 Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), a plan to jointly procure air-defence systems. Fully 21 countries have joined, enticed by the potential economies of scale. The hope is that co-operation will eventually stretch to logistics, maintenance and training. “It’s about cutting costs and quickly acquiring capabilities,” says Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo.

ESSI is organised in layers to ensure overlapping coverage. For short- to medium-range threats, such as drones, Germany is procuring IRIS-T, a home-built system. It is also doubling down on the American-made Patriot as a long-range interceptor; it has proved surprisingly effective against Russian ballistic missiles, which travel faster than cruise missiles. Last, Berlin has selected Israel’s very-long-range Arrow-3 system to knock out ballistic missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere.

Each system tackles threats at different altitudes, speeds and approaches. Military wonks bristle at the suggestion that Sky Shield will resemble a “European Iron Dome”, a reference to Israel’s famous air-defence system. Iron Dome mainly intercepts very short-range rockets and artillery, not large ballistic or cruise missiles. Europe would also struggle to provide the blanket coverage that a small country like Israel boasts. Instead the priority is protecting pockets of critical military and civilian infrastructure.

Sky Shield has its critics. France was irked by Germany’s selection of Israeli and American launchers. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, has long argued for buying more European kit to strengthen the continent’s industrial base. But Sky Shield has snubbed SAMP/T, a Franco-Italian system that operates in the same range as Patriot. Production of the American missile is under strain: demand from allies is roaring, and America has redirected some countries’ Patriot orders to Ukraine. Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer, says it will manage to churn out only 650 interceptors a year by 2027. There is no guarantee that Sky Shield will be prioritised, says Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.

Experts find the Arrow-3 a curious pick. Israel designed it to intercept intermediate-range ballistic missiles from Iran; it has recently been used against Houthi missiles fired from Yemen. But “Russia does not have missiles of the kind that Arrow is optimised to intercept,” notes Rafael Loss of the European Council on Foreign Relations, another think-tank. Arrow could be used against Russia’s Iskander-M missile. But insiders suspect Germany plumped for the system to boost its ties with Israel. As an Israeli system, Arrow-3 could also prove trickier to integrate with NATO’s sensors and command-and-control nodes.

Russia has long claimed that European missile defences undermine its own strategic deterrent. Such claims are mostly hogwash, but there are worries about a new arms race in which missiles, which tend to be cheaper than defensive systems, would have the advantage. French officials have warned Germany that the Arrow purchase shows a lack of trust in NATO’s own deterrent, says Lydia Wachs of the University of Stockholm. Mr Macron has criticised Sky Shield’s focus on purely defensive systems, stressing a need for more deep-strike missile capabilities to deter a Russian attack.

Nonetheless, air-defence initiatives are multiplying. Greece and Poland recently mooted a plan to develop a pan-European shield with funding from the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has endorsed the idea. France is likely to demand that EU funding goes to European manufacturers. Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, France and Hungary have already agreed to jointly buy more Mistral short-range air-defence systems built by MBDA, a European firm. Europe needs to rebuild its air defences; it does not need more squabbling. ■

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