Nigel Farage’s new party wants net zero to be center stage at UK general election

LONDON — Nigel Farage has made immigration a central issue at numerous U.K. elections. This year he hopes to repeat the trick with climate change policy.

Farage’s right-leaning Reform UK party plans to make scrapping Britain's ambitious climate targets central to its pitch at this year's U.K. general election, in a bid to snaffle voters skeptical about the green transition.

Reform UK Leader Richard Tice told POLITICO that net zero would be one of four policy areas which his party would make a “very central and important part of the debate” during the election campaign, alongside the economy, immigration, and the NHS. 

“In a sense, they’re all interrelated, and they will be the key things that we’re focusing on in the election,” Tice said.

Reform UK — set up by its now honorary president Nigel Farage, former leader of the predecessor UKIP and Brexit Party — has led the political backlash against climate action and attempts to hit net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The party has blamed green policies for pushing up costs for consumers and stunting U.K. economic growth.

Tice claimed net zero was costing taxpayers around £30 billion a year, a figure based on internal party estimates. The government’s independent climate advisers — the Climate Change Committee — calculate the cost of hitting net zero at around £17 billion a year between 2033 and 2037, falling to £12 billion per year by 2050, based on a mix of “costs and savings.” 

Reform wants to “scrap” the net zero ambition and hold a referendum on the U.K’s 2050 goal, a legally-binding target. 

Tice predicted he and Farage would win a referendum on net zero “hands down,” despite polls showing that two thirds of U.K. adults currently support the target.

The Reform threat

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is bracing for a major challenge from Reform at the general election, which is expected some time this year, amid dissatisfaction from right-wing voters.

Long ambivalent about the net zero agenda, the prime minister has already tilted his governing Conservative party away from the green agenda pursued by his predecessor-but-one, Boris Johnson. 

Sunak pushed back several key net zero targets last fall in a bid to carve out dividing lines with the main opposition Labour party and appease some of his own MPs who have been skeptical of green policies and the impact of net zero amid cost of living pressures.

But polling suggests the move has done little to arrest Sunak’s falling popularity with voters on the right. Meanwhile, ​​green-orientated Tory MPs, who had attempted to push the prime minister to go faster in tackling climate change, are left searching for politicians to lead their cause at a time when many are departing frontline politics.

A recent megapoll, released by Survation and based on a survey of 15,000 voters, put the Conservatives on track to win fewer than 100 seats at the election, with Labour predicted to win a landslide victory.

Other analysis found that by splitting the Tory vote, Reform could cost the Conservatives 50 seats, as dissatisfied voters who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 move away from the party.

‘Tread carefully’ 

Polling experts said that pushing back on net zero is unlikely to persuade disaffected Conservatives to vote Reform, although it could hold some sway as part of a wider political pitch.

“It is disappointed Conservative voters that offer Reform the most potential to further increase their polling presence,” said Scarlett Maguire, director of the polling company JL Partners. But net zero is not a priority for these voters, she added, who are more concerned with immigration and the economy.

“That being said, they could be open to a move on such policies as part of a wider offering,” Maguire said, pointing to the higher proportion of Tory voters (around 29 percent) who believe the 2050 net zero target should be scrapped, compared to around seven per cent of Labour backers.

But parties should “tread carefully” on climate messaging, she warned.

“A substantial majority of every major demographic believe the climate is changing as a result of human activity, and overall support the government’s target of reaching net zero by 2050,” Maguire added.