‘He just loves winding them up’: Could Nigel Farage actually lead the Tories?

LONDON — They’re loving Nigel instead.

Tory activists weren’t singing quite that as they belted out Robbie Williams’ “Angels” in the presence of Britain’s foremost Brexiteer Nigel Farage at the Conservatives’ conference this week. But they weren’t far off it.

Farage, who left the Tories in the ’90s to lead Britain’s Euroskeptic diehards from various splinter parties including UKIP, was a prominent fixture at the Conservatives’ conference in Manchester this week where he gained entrance as an anchor for GB News.

Farage was mobbed and given a hero’s welcome by activists eager to congratulate the architect of Brexit, raising a question: Could he lead those activists as leader one day?

It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Step-by-step, here’s how that process would work.

1. Become a Tory member

The prospect of Farage returning to the Tories is being taken seriously by those present at conference.

One diplomat present in Manchester, speaking on condition of anonymity, told POLITICO the headline he would be reporting back to base was that Farage was welcomed in. “That tells you where the Conservatives are going better than any of the policies they’ve announced,” this person said.

It’s a prospect some of those at the top of the Conservative Party appear comfortable with too.

“Look the Tory Party is a broad church. I welcome lots of people who want to subscribe to our ideals, to our values,” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told one of Farage’s colleagues at GB News when asked about a return — not quite closing the door.

Security Minister Tom Tugendhat — not known as a Tory right-winger — also declined to shut down the idea of a return, while Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg sounded keen.

Not all are on board, however. Tory Chairman Greg Hands said he wouldn’t welcome someone who has repeatedly “advocated for other political parties.”

2. Be picked as a candidate

If he did make it back into the party, Hands’ control of CCHQ — Tory central office — as chairman might make the next bit trickier for Farage.

The former UKIP boss would then have to make his way through the party’s internal candidate vetting system, which includes due diligence checks and demonstrations of “sound political conviction and integrity.” Party bosses could pull the shutters down at this stage.

If he makes it on to the approved list of Conservative Party candidates, his popularity with elements of the membership may help him convince local members to give him a shot as their man.

Farage twice contested the South Thanet constituency while leading UKIP and could fancy another pop at the new East Thanet constituency formed in its place. Either way, he would be likely to seek a seat somewhere in Britain’s south east. And the Conservatives are reportedly struggling to find new candidates, which might make things easier.

3. Actually get elected

The conference-going Tory activists who mobbed Farage are, of course, not particularly representative of the wider British public.

Farage remains relatively unpopular with Brits in general — and his seven previous failed attempts to win election as an MP don’t augur well.

His divisiveness and bombastic style — as well as brushes with conspiracy theorists — have helped him become one of Britain’s most well-known political figures but it’s yet to help him into the House of Commons.

4. Throw his hat into the ring if Rishi Sunak loses the election

Some steps are easier than others.

Sunak currently trails Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party by an average of 16 points, according to POLITICO’s poll of polls aggregator.

If he fails to turn this around, loses and then resigns as prime minister, Farage — at this point an elected Conservative MP, remember — would have no shortage of supporters encouraging him to stand in the leadership election that would follow.

Could he resist that pressure?

5. Win over Tory MPs

The Tory Party that was reshaped by ex-PM Boris Johnson holds no shortage of true believers in Brexit who sit on the firm right of politics, like Farage.

The next election may pare back their numbers significantly, but there are already plenty of Conservative MPs who fancy their chances of becoming leader if Sunak clears the stage — leaving a crowded field of contenders in any post-election leadership race.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch are among those who could compete with Farage for the votes of right-wing Tory MPs in such a contest.

Under Tory rules, only the top two candidates among the ballot of MPs actually makes it into a vote of the party’s membership – so wooing Tory colleagues he’s spent years berating would be top of the list for Farage if he’s serious.

6. Get the backing of the members

If Farage somehow did make it on to the membership ballot, he might begin to truly believe.

Candidates of the right often triumph in Tory leadership elections when members actually get the chance to vote. Historic examples include Iain Duncan Smith beating long-serving ex-Cabinet minister Ken Clarke, Boris Johnson beating the more centrist Jeremy Hunt — and Liz Truss trouncing Sunak before her own administration came crashing down around her.

While Conservative members are a little-polled group, what data there is suggests affinity for Farage among the party’s 170,000-strong grassroots faithful. A YouGov poll from 2019 suggested 46 percent of members would want him to win any contest — even while he was leading the rival right-wing Brexit Party.

Should Farage make it this far and then win a membership ballot, he would become Tory leader. And only Labour’s Keir Starmer would stand in his way of Downing Street.

But just one problem … does he want to?

“Would I want to join a party that’s put the tax rate up to the highest in over 70 years, that has allowed net migration to run at over half a million a year, that has not used Brexit to deregulate to help small businesses? No, no and no,” Farage told — obviously — GB News.

But speaking to the BBC this week, he didn’t rule out taking a punt after the next election. “Never say never,” Farage said when asked about rejoining the Tories.

Gawain Towler, a former aide still close to Farage, said his old boss is enjoying the attention but is “not going to join a party on the off chance he can turn it into a real conservative party.” He said the Tory membership loves him, but the “machine” of the party will always hate him — and want to control him.

“It’s not going to happen and he knows it’s not going to happen. He just loves winding them up,” Towler said.

“He turns up and the Tories start freaking out,” he added. “[Farage] just has to fart in a room and they lose their senses.”

Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.