Sergei Shoigu’s sacking points to yet more attrition in Ukraine
VLADIMIR PUTIN has never been one to radically overhaul his top team. Those who fall foul of his rules may find themselves in jail, or blown out of the sky. But Russia’s autocrat typically prefers to keep the loyal close, watched over, and rewarded. News of the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister of 12 years, in the middle of war, thus raised eyebrows. Replacing him with Andrei Belousov, a technocrat with no previous direct relations to the security bloc, was even more unexpected.
When all the cards landed, Mr Putin appeared to be playing closer to type, eventually offering the dutiful Mr Shoigu a soft landing as secretary of the national security council. The fate of the incumbent Nikolai Patrushev, one of his most trusted aides and a hardline nationalist idealogue, remains unclear. Despite their appalling performance in 2022, the heads of Russian intelligence agencies, including Alexander Bortnikov, who has run the FSB security service for 16 years, remain in place.
The Kremlin said that the changes, set to be formalised by parliament early this week, looked to align the “security economy with the general economy”. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the appointment of a civilian minister was the “natural” choice to meet the challenges of the Ukrainian war: “Victory on the battlefield belongs to those who are open to innovation and maximally swift implementation.” As a deputy prime minister, Mr Belousov has been responsible for ramping up Russia’s production of drones and is well regarded for his work.
Mr Belousov, 65, is a long-time ally of the president, and appears to share his world view. A macroeconomist who has had a hand in most of Russia’s recent budgets, he is expected to consolidate oversight of Russia’s military economy. Spending on the armed forces this year is estimated at some $120bn, a third of total government spending. Russian arms factories have been working overtime, but some think that the country’s defence industry could plateau next year. Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank, points out that Mr Belousov is no dove. He has worked with Mr Putin since 2008, was one of the few economists to support the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and “always believed that Russia is circled by enemies”.
The new appointment also suggests that Mr Putin is doubling down on his war-of-attrition strategy. The president believes he can outproduce Ukraine and its Western backers. This approach has already yielded dividends in the manufacture of certain weaponry, such as artillery and guided aerial “glide bombs”, which have devastated Ukrainian forces.
“The appointment of Belousov is a signal that the war is serious and for a long time,” says Konstantin Kalachyov, a political analyst and former Kremlin adviser. “The calculation is that Ukraine’s allies will get tired first.”
A source close to the Kremlin says the switch is not expected to have any impact on combat operations, at a moment when Russia is intensifying operations in the Kharkiv region in the north-east of Ukraine. Mr Putin had already cut his defence minister out of many operational discussions, the source says, preferring instead direct, multiple daily contacts with Valery Gerasimov, his top general (who himself has long been rumoured to be in line for replacement). Mr Shoigu’s personal ambitions and desire to get involved in such matters were part of the reason for his dismissal, the source added. “The new minister will have no ambitions to direct front-line troops. He will do what a minister of defence is supposed to do.”
Mr Shoigu’s departure had been predicted by some, with the former defence minister blamed for Russia’s sluggish military campaign in Ukraine. He faced fierce criticism for inefficiencies and for corruption from Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, who underscored his objections by leading an armoured column towards Moscow. Mr Shoigu appeared to have been put on notice in April with the arrest of his deputy, Timur Ivanov, on bribery charges. But public displays of loyalty have so far spared him from the kind of personnel decision that awaited Mr Prigozhin, whose star was shot down so dramatically last August.■
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